過去20年的大部分時(shí)間里，在那些致力于將其生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到低成本國(guó)家(特別是中國(guó))的美國(guó)公司幫助下，美國(guó)的通貨膨脹率一直受到抑制。這些美國(guó)公司現(xiàn)在卻可能正反過來推漲美國(guó)的通脹率。

　　During much of the past couple decades, American companies, efforts to shift their production to low-cost locales--China in particular--have helped keep a lid on inflation in the U.S.

　　That benefit may now be reversing itself. 中國(guó)吸引全球制造業(yè)的一些有利條件正在喪失。在美國(guó)官員的壓力下，中國(guó)正逐漸允許匯率低得出名的人民幣兌美元升值。與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)工人的工資也在以每年高達(dá)30%的幅度提高。

　　Some of the advantages that made China a magnet for global manufacturing are fading. Under pressure from U.S. officials, China is gradually allowing its famously cheap currency to rise against the dollar. At the same time, Chinese workers' wages are increasing at an annual rate of as much as 30%.

　　上述變化在美國(guó)產(chǎn)生的一個(gè)影響就是，據(jù)美國(guó)勞工部(Labor Department)說，今年1至3月，中國(guó)輸美商品的平均價(jià)格折合成年率的升幅為5.2%，這是2008年8月以來的最快升速。

　　In one sign of the effect of those changes in the U.S., the average price of goods imported from China rose at an annualized rate of 5.2% in the three months through March, according to the Labor Department. That's the fastest pace since August 2008.

　　中國(guó)在美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)中所扮演的角色正在發(fā)生變化，使人有理由重新考慮在當(dāng)前全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇中通貨膨脹可能發(fā)生的方式。在傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)看來，當(dāng)一個(gè)國(guó)家的人開始要求加薪以抵消物價(jià)不斷上漲產(chǎn)生的影響時(shí)，這個(gè)國(guó)家的物價(jià)會(huì)失去控制，因?yàn)檫@種局面下會(huì)形成螺旋形通貨膨脹，即工資和物價(jià)相互助推。到目前為止，這種螺旋形通貨膨脹局面還不大可能出現(xiàn)在美國(guó)，美國(guó)的高失業(yè)率正在削弱工人在工資上討價(jià)還價(jià)的能力。

　　The changing role of China in the U.S. economy offers reason to reconsider the way inflation might arise in the current global recovery. In the traditional view, a country's prices get out of control when people start demanding raises to offset rising consumer prices, creating an inflationary spiral in which wages and prices reinforce one another. Such a spiral is, so far, unlikely in the U.S., where high unemployment is undermining workers' bargaining power.

　　但站在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度看，中國(guó)不斷上漲的工資水平(全球市場(chǎng)對(duì)中國(guó)產(chǎn)品的需求對(duì)此起了一定刺激作用)會(huì)促使美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家出現(xiàn)螺旋形通貨膨脹局面嗎？

　　But in a global economy, could rising wages in China--spurred on in part by global demand for Chinese-made goods--help get the spiral going in the U.S. and elsewhere?

　　可以看看美國(guó)雷克蘭工業(yè)公司(Lakeland Industries Inc.)首席執(zhí)行長(zhǎng)賴安(Christopher Ryan)的說法。這家公司生產(chǎn)從軍用到半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)等諸多領(lǐng)域所需的防護(hù)設(shè)備。賴安最近將該公司在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)所售產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格上調(diào)了5%，因?yàn)檫^去一年中雷克蘭公司的成本也上升了5%，而過去幾年中這些產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格幾乎沒有變動(dòng)過。成本上升主要是因?yàn)榇笞谏唐穬r(jià)格的飆升，但賴安說成本上升約有20%要?dú)w因于中國(guó)工人的工資和福利不斷提高。雷克蘭公司目前約一半的生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)在中國(guó)進(jìn)行。

　　Consider the case of Christopher Ryan, chief executive at Lakeland Industries Inc. (LAKE) , which manufactures protective gear for purposes ranging from firefighting to semiconductor production. He recently raised his prices in the U.S. by 5%, after holding them flat for most of the last few years, because his costs have risen by the same amount in the past year. Most of the cost increase reflects soaring commodity prices, but he attributes about a fifth of it to rising wages and benefits in China, where his company does about half its manufacturing.

　　他說，中國(guó)勞動(dòng)力價(jià)格的提高顯然正在推高美國(guó)的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格。

　　"Obviously the increase in labor prices in China is increasing our prices in the United States," he says.

　　當(dāng)然，進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品在美國(guó)所需消費(fèi)品中的占比相對(duì)較小。中國(guó)工資水平上漲對(duì)加拿大等更依賴對(duì)外貿(mào)易的經(jīng)濟(jì)體可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生更大的影響。

　　To be sure, imports make up a relatively small share of U.S. consumption. The effect could be greater in more trade-dependent economies such as Canada.

　　此外，企業(yè)雖然很可能會(huì)另找成本低廉的地方去從事生產(chǎn)，但這或許需要一定時(shí)間。賴安估計(jì)，如果中國(guó)的生產(chǎn)成本繼續(xù)以目前這樣的速度提高，墨西哥在兩到三年內(nèi)將再度成為有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的制造業(yè)基地。

　　Also, companies will most likely find another place to manufacture cheaply. But that could take a while. Ryan estimates that if the cost of manufacturing in China keeps rising at the same rate, Mexico will become competitive again as a manufacturing base in two or three years.

　　與此同時(shí)，中國(guó)價(jià)格可能會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)那些已習(xí)慣于依賴中國(guó)提供大多數(shù)消費(fèi)品和其他產(chǎn)品的貿(mào)易伙伴造成一些問題。

　　In the meantime, the China price could create some problems for trading partners who have come to rely on the country for much of their supply of consumer and other goods.