In official comments that have fueled speculation about faster appreciation of the yuan, senior Chinese leaders seem to be acknowledging an argument long made by Washington and others that a stronger yuan may be helpful in taming the country's rising inflation.

　　中國高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人發(fā)表的一些官方言論似乎承認(rèn)華盛頓和其他方面長期以來的一個觀點：人民幣升值或許有助于抑制中國不斷加劇的通貨膨脹，這類言論引發(fā)人們猜測人民幣將更快升值。

　　U.S. officials, and many economists, have argued that an artificially cheap Chinese currency, while boosting China's exports, is ultimately self-defeating because it adds to inflation, in part because export earnings flood the economy.

　　美國官員和很多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家都曾說，人為壓低人民幣匯率在提振中國出口的同時，最終也會損害本國利益，因為它會由于出口利潤泛濫于國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟等原因加劇通貨膨脹。

　　In recent days, as inflation readings have accelerated, Chinese officials have made comments that some analysts believe signal greater acceptance of that argument. Premier Wen Jiabao, at a meeting last week of the State Council, China's equivalent of a cabinet, listed 'strengthening the flexibility' of the yuan's exchange rate as one of several tools the government should better use to control prices. Less senior officials have made that argument before, but Mr. Wen's remarks were unusual for a top leader.

　　一些分析人士相信，中國官員近幾天在數(shù)據(jù)顯示通脹加劇的情況下發(fā)表的言論，暗示他們對上述觀點有了更深的認(rèn)同。總理溫家寶在國務(wù)院上周一次會議上，把提高人民幣匯率“靈活性”列為政府為控制物價應(yīng)當(dāng)更好利用的多種工具之一。此前也有級別比他低的官員說過這樣的話，但溫家寶的言論對于一位高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人來說是不尋常的。

　　Still, economists say Beijing's change in language, while significant, is unlikely to result in a sharp jump in the yuan. European Pressphoto Agency中國總理溫家寶，此圖攝于2010年。

　　上周，溫家寶把提高人民幣匯率“靈活性”列為了政府為控制物價應(yīng)當(dāng)更好利用的多種工具之一。不過濟學(xué)家說，北京措辭的改變雖然意義重大，卻不太可能帶來人民幣匯率的大幅上升。

　　'China appears to be on the verge of allowing faster currency appreciation in response to inflation,' Mark Williams, senior China economist for Capital Economics in London, wrote in a note Tuesday, citing official comments. But Mr. Williams predicts the yuan will end this year around 6.20 per dollar, a gain of about 5.25% from current levels─meaning only a slight pickup in the pace of appreciation.

　　倫敦公司Capital Economics資深中國經(jīng)濟學(xué)家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在周二一份報告中以官方言論為依據(jù)說，中國似乎正在接近于為抗通脹而允許匯率更快升值。但威廉姆斯預(yù)計，今年年末人民幣將在1美元兌6.20元人民幣左右，較當(dāng)前升值幅度約為5.25%。這意味著人民幣升值速度只是略有加快。

　　The yuan ended trading Wednesday in Shanghai at a record high against the U.S. currency. But at 6.5255 per dollar, the yuan has gained only 4.6% since June, when Beijing ended a nearly two-year peg to the dollar. That is a pace of about 0.5% a month, much slower than some economists and foreign critics have urged.

　　周三上海市場，人民幣收于1美元兌6.5255元人民幣，創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄高點，但自去年6月份北京解除人民幣與美元維持近兩年的掛鉤以來，升值幅度只有4.6%。算下來每個月升值幅度約為0.5%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和外國批評人士呼吁的速度。

　　Economists generally agree that faster appreciation could help cool prices, at least somewhat. A stronger yuan would reduce the costs in local currency of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities that China imports in enormous quantities─soaring prices for which have been passed on to consumers in higher costs of food and transport.

　　經(jīng)濟學(xué)家普遍認(rèn)為，加快升值有助于冷卻物價，至少可以在一定程度上冷卻。人民幣升值會降低中國大量進(jìn)口的原油、鐵礦石、大豆和其他大宗商品以本幣計算的價格。進(jìn)口大宗商品價格的飆升，已經(jīng)以食品和交通成本上漲的形式傳導(dǎo)給消費者。

　　Mr. Wen has said fighting inflation is China's top economic priority this year, and the government has raised interest rates four times since October, ordered companies to halt price increases, and cranked back the supply of bank credit. But consumer prices still rose in March at their fastest pace in 32 months.

　　溫家寶曾說，抗通脹是今年中國經(jīng)濟工作的頭等大事。自去年10月份以來，政府已經(jīng)四次上調(diào)利率。除此以外，它還下令企業(yè)暫停漲價，并重新收緊銀行的信貸供給。但今年3月份消費價格仍然出現(xiàn)32個月以來的最大漲幅。

　　On Monday, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the government is working to reduce the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves. They have soared to more than $3 trillion largely as a consequence of China's currency policy, which forces the central bank to buy dollars from exporters and foreign investors. Mr. Zhou said the reserves pump excess cash into the economy and 'exceed our reasonable requirements.

　　中國人民銀行行長周小川周一說，政府正在著手減少外匯儲備的積累。主要由于中國的貨幣政策迫使央行從出口企業(yè)和外國投資者手中購買美元，外匯儲備已經(jīng)猛增至三萬億美元以上。周小川說，這些儲備向經(jīng)濟體注入了過多現(xiàn)金，已經(jīng)超過了中國需要的合理水平。

　　China's currency policy has long been a source of friction with trading partners, especially the U.S., which argue that an undervalued yuan unfairly benefits Chinese exporters. On Monday, a delegation of 10 U.S. senators arrived in Beijing─including New York Democrat Charles Schumer, perhaps China's biggest critic on the currency issue─for meetings with Chinese officials at which the Americans plan to raise the exchange-rate issue.

　　中國匯率政策長期以來都是與貿(mào)易伙伴、特別是美國發(fā)生磨擦的原因，這些貿(mào)易伙伴認(rèn)為，人民幣匯率低估給中國出口企業(yè)帶來了不公平的好處。一個由10名美國參議員組成的代表團周一抵達(dá)北京與中國官員會談。美方打算在會談期間提起匯率問題。代表團成員包括紐約州民主黨參議員舒默(Charles Schumer)，他可能是匯率問題上抨擊中國最猛烈的一位。

　　But the Obama administration also has stressed to Beijing the importance of a stronger yuan in fighting inflation, recognizing that China's leaders place far more importance on domestic considerations than on foreign pressure.

　　奧巴馬政府還曾向中方強調(diào)人民幣升值對于抗通脹的重要性，它認(rèn)識到，中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人對國內(nèi)情況的重視遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過對國外壓力的重視。

　　Top political leaders in China like Mr. Wen─the ones who ultimately decide key issues like exchange-rate policy─in the past didn't typically view the currency as a monetary-policy tool, analysts say. But that may be changing.

　　像溫家寶這樣的中國高層領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人，是匯率政策等核心問題的最終決策者。分析人士說，過去他們一般都沒有把匯率當(dāng)作一項貨幣政策工具來看。但事情可能正在起變化。

　　'There may be a shift under way from thinking about the exchange rate mainly as a variable that affects the competitiveness of exporters to a macroeconomic variable that is part of the management of growth and inflation,' said Louis Kuijs, economist at the World Bank in Beijing.

　　世界銀行(World Bank)駐北京經(jīng)濟學(xué)家高路易(Louis Kuijs)說，目前可能正在發(fā)生一種轉(zhuǎn)變，不再把匯率主要視為一個可以影響出口商競爭力的因素，而是把它視為一個宏觀經(jīng)濟因素，是管理經(jīng)濟增長和通貨膨脹的一部分。

　　Still, estimating the impact of a stronger yuan on inflation with any precision is difficult.

　　盡管如此，很難確切估計人民幣走強對通脹的影響。

　　And there are limits to the relationship between the two. Higher costs for imported fertilizer and diesel affect the agricultural sector, but most of China's food—which accounts for nearly a third of the basket used to calculate the consumer-price index—is grown domestically, not imported.

　　此外，二者之間的關(guān)系也是有限的。進(jìn)口化肥和柴油價格的上漲會影響農(nóng)業(yè)，但中國大部分糧食都是國內(nèi)種植的，而不是進(jìn)口的。食品占了中國消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)計算權(quán)重的近三分之一。

　　Even for goods that are imported, the government's other tools, like price controls, help mitigate the impact of imported inflation on consumers: State-set prices for gasoline and diesel in China have risen about 10% this year, even as global prices for crude oil have soared more than 20%.

　　即使是對進(jìn)口商品，政府的其他工具（比如價格控制）也可以幫助減輕輸入型通脹對消費者的影響：中國由政府設(shè)定的汽油和柴油價格今年上漲了約10%，而同期全球原油價格飆升了20%以上。

　　A stronger yuan would do little to affect one key structural component of China's inflation: rising wages. Economists believe that China has hit a point in its development at which demand for labor starts to grow faster than supply, pushing up salaries. A survey conducted by Standard Chartered in the first quarter of 2011 showed average wages in a sample of 87 manufacturing firms rising by 9% to 15% from the previous year.

　　人民幣走強對中國通貨膨脹的一個主要結(jié)構(gòu)性成分──不斷提高的工資影響甚微。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認(rèn)為，中國的發(fā)展已經(jīng)到了一定的階段，勞動力需求的增速開始超過供應(yīng)的增速，進(jìn)而推高了工資。渣打銀行(Standard Chartered) 2011年一季度進(jìn)行的一項調(diào)查顯示，在調(diào)查的87個制造企業(yè)中，平均工資較上年同期漲了9%至15%。

　　Balanced against the benefits of a stronger yuan are concerns about the potential impact on exporters, who employ a huge share of China's work force. Many of them operate on thin profit margins. Concern about exporters is one reason top officials have long insisted that any change in the yuan must be measured. 'We will further increase the [yuan's] flexibility according to the market,' Mr. Wen said last month. 'But we must also keep in mind that this kind of reform is gradual, because it affects companies and employment.

　　另一方面，人民幣走強會引發(fā)對出口商潛在影響的擔(dān)憂。出口商雇傭的工人占了中國勞動力總數(shù)的一大塊。很多出口商的利潤率非常低。對出口商的擔(dān)憂是政府高層一直堅持人民幣升值必須慎重進(jìn)行的原因之一。溫家寶上個月說，將根據(jù)市場需求變化，進(jìn)一步加大人民幣匯率浮動彈性；但同時要堅持漸進(jìn)升值，因為要考慮到企業(yè)承受能力和就業(yè)問題。

　　A hazard of the steady, gradual approach to appreciation is that it invites speculators to pump capital into China to profit on what they see as a one-way bet. Authorities revile such 'hot money,' in part because it can further fuel inflation.

　　穩(wěn)步漸進(jìn)升值的一個危險是，這會吸引投機者向中國注入大量資本，以便從他們認(rèn)為只賺不賠的押注中獲利。有關(guān)部門抨擊這類熱錢，原因之一是熱錢會進(jìn)一步推高通脹。

　　As a result, some economists have argued that Beijing should opt for a sizable one-time revaluation of the yuan. But even academic advocates of this approach conceded that it is politically untenable.

　　有鑒于此，一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家說，北京應(yīng)該選擇一次性大幅升值人民幣。不過，即使是提倡這一做法的學(xué)術(shù)界人士也承認(rèn)，這在政治上是站不住腳的。

　　Last spring, Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, proposed a one-time appreciation, followed by a return to a pegged exchange rate. Now, however, he admits: 'The economics make sense, but politically it would be impossible to get agreement.

　　去年春季，中國社會科學(xué)院高級研究員張斌提出了一次性升值、然后回到與一籃子貨幣掛鉤的匯率建議。不過，他現(xiàn)在承認(rèn)，這在經(jīng)濟學(xué)上是說得通的，但政治上無法獲得同意。

　　Xia Bin, one of three academic advisers on the central bank's largely powerless monetary-policy committee, argued in an Internet post Tuesday that a one-time jump in the yuan 'shouldn't be excluded.' But he also said this was a 'long-term' prescription. 'In the current situation, excessive fast appreciation isn't good for the Chinese economy or social stability,' he wrote.

　　夏斌周二在網(wǎng)上發(fā)貼說，不排除一次性升值的情況。不過他也說，從長期來看，逐步的升值是必須的。他寫到，在目前的情況下，升值過快，不利于中國經(jīng)濟和社會穩(wěn)定。夏斌是央行下屬的基本無權(quán)的貨幣政策委員會中三位專家顧問之一。

　　Some economists argue that the general approach to measuring the yuan's exchange rate is misguided, because it overemphasizes the dollar. While the yuan has gained 4.6% against the U.S. currency since June, its 'real effective exchange rate'—taking account of price changes and the yuan's value against other currencies like the euro—is little changed.

　　一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家說，衡量人民幣匯率的一般方法誤入歧途了，因為它過于強調(diào)美元。盡管去年6月以來人民幣兌美元已經(jīng)累計升值4.6%，實際有效匯率卻變化很小。實際有效匯率考慮到了物價變化和人民幣兌歐元等其他貨幣的匯率。

　　Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that in the period from June 2010 through March 2011, the real effective exchange rate has actually depreciated slightly. Economists say that means there is scope for appreciation without hurting the competitiveness of exporters. But even the more bullish estimates appearing in the last few days expect appreciation of only 6% to 8% against the dollar over the course of the year.

　　國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，從2010年6月至2011年3月，人民幣實際有效匯率實際上小幅下降。經(jīng)濟學(xué)家說，這意味著存在在不損害出口商競爭力的情況下升值的空間。不過，即使是過去幾天出現(xiàn)的更加樂觀的估計也認(rèn)為，今年人民幣兌美元將僅僅升值6%至8%。