If the U.S. and China were dating, this is what they would be saying to each other right now: " It's not me, it's you."

　　假如美國(guó)和中國(guó)是在交往的男女，現(xiàn)在他們和對(duì)方說的會(huì)是：這是你的錯(cuò)，不關(guān)我的事。

　　As so often, money worries are the source of tension in this relationship; in particular, inflation. Neither party wants to accept responsibility for it, preferring instead to wait for the other to cave.

　　金錢問題往往是這種關(guān)系緊張的源頭；特別是通貨膨脹。雙方都不想為此負(fù)責(zé)，而寧愿等著對(duì)方妥協(xié)。

　　How this game of chicken plays out will define the global economy in the second half of this year.

　　這場(chǎng)“懦夫博弈”如何收?qǐng)鰰?huì)左右今年下半年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的命運(yùn)。

　　To Beijing, rising commodity prices owe much to the Federal Reserve's continuing campaign against disinflation through quantitative easing and zero interest rates, undermining confidence in the dollar.

　　對(duì)中國(guó)來說，大宗商品漲價(jià)很大程度上源自美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）通過量化寬松和零利率政策持續(xù)對(duì)抗通脹乏力的行動(dòng)，削弱了市場(chǎng)對(duì)美元的信心。

　　While QE has boosted financial-asset prices, though, U.S. house prices remain moribund and unemployment, while improving, remains high. For the Fed, the economic recovery remains fragile and spare capacity counteracts inflationary forces.

　　而量化寬松雖然推高了金融資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格，美國(guó)房?jī)r(jià)仍停滯不前，失業(yè)率雖有所緩解但仍較高。對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)來說，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇依然脆弱，閑置產(chǎn)能抵消了通脹壓力。

　　The Fed in turn points the finger at China's rampant appetite when it comes to rising raw materials prices. Under this argument, China's economy remains too wedded to fixed investment and exports, abetted by an artificially depressed yuan. A higher yuan would help make Chinese exports less competitive and encourage a shift towards a less resource-intensive consumer and services economy, as well as easing the cost of dollar-denominated commodities.

　　在原材料漲價(jià)問題上，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)反過來將矛頭指向中國(guó)巨大的胃口。照這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)，中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)仍與固定投資和出口緊密相連，并受到人為壓低的人民幣匯率推動(dòng)。人民幣升值會(huì)促使中國(guó)出口競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力減弱，有助于中國(guó)向消耗較少資源的消費(fèi)和服務(wù)型經(jīng)濟(jì)過渡，還會(huì)減輕以美元計(jì)價(jià)的大宗商品的成本壓力。

　　If Beijing won't countenance that, then Chinese inflation is the logical outcome and is also useful to Washington, as it makes Chinese exports less competitive.

　　若中國(guó)不同意這一點(diǎn)，中國(guó)通脹就是合情合理的結(jié)果，也對(duì)美國(guó)有好處，因?yàn)橥洉?huì)削弱中國(guó)出口的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。

　　Both positions have some merit. It is remarkable that QE continues nearly two years after the end of the U.S. recession. Higher real U.S. interest rates would take some heat out of commodities prices, especially if raised in tandem with central banks elsewhere, many of which are also running loose monetary policy.

　　兩種立場(chǎng)都有一定道理。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退結(jié)束后近兩年仍在實(shí)施量化寬松政策，這著實(shí)引人注目。美國(guó)實(shí)際利率升高會(huì)為大宗商品價(jià)格降溫，特別是在與其他國(guó)家央行同時(shí)上調(diào)的情況下，許多央行也在實(shí)施寬松的貨幣政策。

　　Yet if the U.S. can be accused of playing with inflationary fire to bolster employment, so is China. Beijing's long-standing linkage of the yuan to the dollar and enormous injection of stimulus into the economy in the wake of the financial crisis both predate QE.

　　然而，若美國(guó)能被冠以冒通脹之險(xiǎn)來提振就業(yè)的罪名，那中國(guó)也同樣難辭其咎。早在量化寬松之前，中國(guó)就已經(jīng)長(zhǎng)期將人民幣與美元掛鉤，并在金融危機(jī)后向經(jīng)濟(jì)注入大量刺激資金。

　　Recent measures, such as pressuring Unilever to postpone price increases, demonstrate the acrobatics required by Beijing to cool inflation if traditional monetary methods aren't used.

　　近期諸如施壓聯(lián)合利華（Unilever）暫緩漲價(jià)的措施顯示出中國(guó)在不使用傳統(tǒng)貨幣措施的情況下抑制通脹的復(fù)雜舉措。

　　China is unwilling to raise rates sharply or let the yuan appreciate quickly because that would hurt big export industries and state-controlled borrowers with close ties to Beijing, says Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research. And price controls, while effective in the short term, encourage consumption and supply shortages in the medium-term, stoking inflation.

　　 Lombard Street Research的喬伊列娃（Diana Choyleva）說，中國(guó)不愿大幅加息或允許人民幣快速升值，原因是那樣會(huì)損害大型出口行業(yè)和與政府關(guān)系緊密的借款人。價(jià)格控制雖然在短期內(nèi)有效，但會(huì)在中期刺激消費(fèi)和加劇供應(yīng)短缺，從而使通脹更嚴(yán)重。

　　So the pressure on China looks intense. Slow to withdraw the stimulus deployed during the financial crisis, Beijing now struggles to contain rising prices with gradual, often unorthodox, methods. Fed policy and supply shocks like Middle Eastern turmoil compound the pressure.

　　因此中國(guó)的壓力看起來很大。中國(guó)緩慢取消了金融危機(jī)期間實(shí)施的刺激措施，現(xiàn)在正艱難地利用循序漸進(jìn)且往往是非常規(guī)方法來遏制漲價(jià)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的政策以及中東騷亂等事件對(duì)供應(yīng)的沖擊也加劇了壓力。

　　And, unlike America, China is grappling with wage inflation due to demographic changes and still faces the risk of elevated property prices.

　　另外，與美國(guó)不同，由于人口結(jié)構(gòu)的變化，中國(guó)正努力應(yīng)對(duì)工資通脹，并且依然面臨房?jī)r(jià)上漲的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

　　Sharp jumps in the cost of living have been associated historically with social turmoil in China. Beijing is, therefore, caught between fear of inflation squeezing incomes too hard and higher rates, or a stronger yuan, hurting growth and boosting unemployment.

　　在中國(guó)，生活成本大幅增加在歷史上往往與社會(huì)動(dòng)亂相關(guān)聯(lián)。因此，中國(guó)陷入了兩難境地，一方面擔(dān)心通貨膨脹對(duì)收入的擠壓太厲害，另一方面擔(dān)心高利率或人民幣升值會(huì)損害經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)并增加失業(yè)率。

　　The current course of policy makers pleases commodity bulls while making life difficult for the Fed, which must explain away headline inflation as a temporary phenomenon.

　　決策者目前所采取的政策方針讓看好大宗商品的投資者高興了，卻難為了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不得不以總體通脹只是暫時(shí)現(xiàn)象的借口搪塞。

　　But, with inflation a more clear and present danger in China, expect Beijing to blink first.

　　不過，隨著通貨膨脹成為中國(guó)日益明顯和迫切的危機(jī)，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)會(huì)先退一步。