Want to buy a piece of Chinese property sector heaven? Now could be your chance.

　　想從中國(guó)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)買(mǎi)一塊“天堂”？現(xiàn)在可能就是個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)。

　　Shui On Land, in common with other developers, is battening down the hatches for a tough second half. And it is planning to sell parts of its prestigious Tiandi projects─Tiandi translates as “heaven and earth.”

　　瑞安房地產(chǎn)(Shui On Land)和其他開(kāi)發(fā)商一樣，正在為下半年的艱難日子做準(zhǔn)備。它正打算部分出售其知名的“天地”項(xiàng)目。

　　China's developers came into 2011 with significant inventory on their books. Strong investment mismatched with weak sales in the first half have only added to the total. Jinsong Du, property analyst at Credit Suisse, says that a low sell through rate for developers in the first half means that they will be working overtime to shift unsold property in the final months of the year.

　　2011年剛開(kāi)始的時(shí)候，中國(guó)開(kāi)發(fā)商賬上的存貨不少。上半年的大規(guī)模投資加上銷(xiāo)售的疲軟，讓存貨總量只增不減。瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)房地產(chǎn)分析師杜勁松說(shuō)，由于上半年售出率低，開(kāi)發(fā)商將在今年剩下的幾個(gè)月內(nèi)加班加點(diǎn)地推銷(xiāo)未售樓盤(pán)。

　　The problem of oversupply is set to be compounded by more property coming on line. Vanke, China's largest developer, has said it has significantly more property coming to market in September and October than the average in the first eight months of the year. That is replicated across other developers.

　　供給過(guò)剩的問(wèn)題勢(shì)必因?yàn)樾碌臉潜P(pán)入市而加重。中國(guó)最大開(kāi)發(fā)商萬(wàn)科(Vanke)曾說(shuō)，它在9到10月份推向市場(chǎng)的樓盤(pán)數(shù)量將明顯高于今年前八個(gè)月的平均數(shù)量。其他開(kāi)發(fā)商也是這樣一種情況。

　　A combination of high inventory, more property coming to market and continued government controls restricting purchases means the mismatch between supply and demand will become even more marked. And this time developers cannot count on credit to tide them over. Bank loans to the real-estate sector fell to $6.5 billion in the second quarter from $25.8 billion in the first quarter.

　　高庫(kù)存、新入市樓盤(pán)以及政府限制購(gòu)房的持續(xù)調(diào)控，意味著供需矛盾將越發(fā)明顯。而這一次開(kāi)發(fā)商無(wú)法指望用信貸來(lái)渡過(guò)難關(guān)。發(fā)放給房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的銀行貸款，已從一季度的258億美元下降到二季度的65億美元。

　　An expansion in finance from trust companies, and a move to issue bonds offshore made up part of the shortfall. But now the regulators are moving to tighten access to both alternative sources of finance.

　　通過(guò)擴(kuò)大從信托公司融資、在離岸市場(chǎng)發(fā)行債券，開(kāi)發(fā)商填補(bǔ)了部分空缺。但現(xiàn)在監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)正在采取措施收緊這兩個(gè)融資渠道。

　　A policy reversal remains a possibility. Developers are hoping that a fading global recovery will dent the government's resolve to control prices, and speculators will be allowed back into the market to buoy demand. But Beijing appears determined to keep controls in place, with reports that restrictions on purchases will be extended to a new wave of cities.

　　政策仍有可能逆轉(zhuǎn)。開(kāi)發(fā)商預(yù)計(jì)，全球復(fù)蘇之勢(shì)減弱將會(huì)削弱政府控制房?jī)r(jià)的決心，投機(jī)者將獲準(zhǔn)重回市場(chǎng)以提振需求。但北京似乎已經(jīng)下定決心繼續(xù)調(diào)控。有報(bào)道說(shuō)，購(gòu)房限制將擴(kuò)大到新一批城市。

　　It all adds up to a very challenging environment. Highly leveraged developers operating in the luxury end of the market will be the first to suffer. A high ratio of net debt to equity means the tolerance of developers like Greentown China Holdings Ltd., Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd, and Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. for weak transaction volumes is limited. That raises the chance that they will be forced to accept lower prices to make sure they can sell properties.

　　這一切都讓開(kāi)發(fā)商面臨的環(huán)境變得更有挑戰(zhàn)性。首先受到?jīng)_擊的將是經(jīng)營(yíng)高端房地產(chǎn)的高杠桿開(kāi)發(fā)商。由于凈債/股本比率很高，綠城中國(guó)控股有限公司(Greentown China Holdings Ltd.)、廣州富力地產(chǎn)股份有限公司(Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd.)和世茂房地產(chǎn)控股有限公司對(duì)成交量疲軟的容忍度是有限的。這就增加了他們被迫降價(jià)、確保能夠賣(mài)出樓盤(pán)的可能性。

　　Valuations for these developers are already low. But an extended stay in purgatory, rather than a quick bounce back to heaven, lies ahead.

　　這些開(kāi)發(fā)商的估值已經(jīng)很低。但擺在前面的不是馬上返回天堂，而是在地獄里繼續(xù)呆一段時(shí)間。