Is corn the next soy bean?

　　玉米會(huì)成為當(dāng)年的大豆嗎？

　　In 2001, China opened up its soybean industry to imports. Within three years, it moved from near-self sufficiency to being the world's largest importer. Now China is starting to look overseas for corn.

　　2001年，中國(guó)開放了大豆產(chǎn)業(yè)，允許大豆進(jìn)口。三年內(nèi)，中國(guó)從大豆接近自給自足變?yōu)槿蜃畲蟮拇蠖惯M(jìn)口國(guó)。現(xiàn)在，中國(guó)又開始在海外尋找玉米。

　　Rising incomes are whetting China's appetite for a better diet, meaning rising demand for corn. In the short term, increasing domestic production will be hard. Indeed, China imported 1.6 million tons of corn in 2010, up 18-fold from 2009. The U.S. Grains Council forecasts China will import four million to five million tons this year, equivalent to 5% of the global corn trade at a time of low stocks.

　　Getty Images中國(guó)開始尋求從海外市場(chǎng)進(jìn)口玉米。收入的增加令中國(guó)人提高膳食標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的胃口大開，這也意味著對(duì)玉米的需求會(huì)增加。短期內(nèi)增加國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)能非常困難。中國(guó)2010年進(jìn)口了160萬噸玉米，是2009年的19倍。美國(guó)谷物理事會(huì)（U.S. Grains Council）預(yù)測(cè)，今年中國(guó)將進(jìn)口400萬至500萬噸玉米。在眼下庫(kù)存很低的時(shí)候，這相當(dāng)于全球玉米貿(mào)易量的5%。

　　Yet corn bulls may be too optimistic. Corn is at a record $7.80 a bushel in Chicago, in part because its use to make ethanol in the U.S. links it to high oil prices. Global prices, therefore, are 23% higher than in China. That price difference discourages imports. They are unlikely to rise significantly until that gap closes which could happen if, say, oil prices cool off or South American harvests are bigger than expected.

　　但因此看漲玉米價(jià)格未免過于樂觀。目前芝加哥商品交易所每蒲式耳玉米為7.80美元，這是因?yàn)楦哂蛢r(jià)導(dǎo)致部分玉米被用作制造乙醇的原料。全球玉米價(jià)格因此比中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)高出了23%。價(jià)差會(huì)抑制進(jìn)口。除非價(jià)差能夠縮小，否則進(jìn)口量不會(huì)大幅上升。而這也并非不可能發(fā)生：如果油價(jià)回落或南美玉米收成好于預(yù)期，價(jià)差自然會(huì)縮小。

　　Politics is another wild card. Beijing has been reluctant to allow commercialization of genetically modified seeds. Yet their adoption could help China increase its corn yield from 5.3 tons per hectare towards the 9.6 tons enjoyed in the U.S. If Beijing backs GM foods, and the Chinese public can be persuaded to eat them, they could also restrain imports.

　　而政治是另一個(gè)不確定的因素。中國(guó)政府一直不愿批準(zhǔn)轉(zhuǎn)基因種子的商業(yè)化。但采用轉(zhuǎn)基因技術(shù)有助中國(guó)提高玉米產(chǎn)量，從當(dāng)前每公頃5.3噸提高至美國(guó)的每公頃9.6噸的水平。如果中國(guó)政府支持轉(zhuǎn)基因食品，中國(guó)民眾也能夠接受并消費(fèi)此類食品，那么這也會(huì)抑制玉米的進(jìn)口。

　　High international prices in the short term and options to raise yields in the long term mean corn isn't yet in the same category as soy beans. An increase in imports isn't in doubt. Its extent and timing are.

　　短期內(nèi)國(guó)際玉米價(jià)格高企以及長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)為了提高產(chǎn)量所面臨的選擇意味著玉米和大豆的情況并不相同。玉米進(jìn)口量的增加確定無疑，但不確定的是增加的幅度以及開始的時(shí)間點(diǎn)。