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Over the years, there have been lots of explanations from why Chinese save so much. Here's a new one: the worse that Chinese banks treat their customers, the more that Chinese customers save, an International Monetary Fund study says.
多年來(lái),有關(guān)中國(guó)人為什么喜歡大量?jī)?chǔ)蓄有過(guò)許多解釋?,F(xiàn)在這其中又要新增一條:國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund,簡(jiǎn)稱:IMF)的一項(xiàng)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)的銀行支付的存款利率越低,中國(guó)人的儲(chǔ)蓄率越高。
Since the mid-19990s, China's urban household savings rate has increased to 30% of disposable income from 19%. That's also been a time period when China's per-capita income has risen five-fold. It would make sense that the richer that people became, the less they would save. But in China, it's the opposite.
自上世紀(jì)90年代中期開(kāi)始,中國(guó)城市家庭的儲(chǔ)蓄占可支配收入的比重從19%上升至30%。同期中國(guó)人均收入增長(zhǎng)了四倍。按理說(shuō),人們?cè)礁辉?,?chǔ)蓄率越低才對(duì)??墒侵袊?guó)的情況正好相反。
Why?
這是為什么?
Some economists argue that the Chinese save to make up for a lousy pension and health-care system, knowing that they'll have to pay steeply if they get sick. Others say the Chinese want to buy apartments, which China's communist government made widely available for sale in the late '90s. Still others say that families of boys save especially a lot because they want to be able to help make their sons better marriage bait.
一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為,中國(guó)人增加儲(chǔ)蓄是因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的養(yǎng)老和醫(yī)保體系還很不完善。中國(guó)人清楚,一旦生病他們就要大把花錢(qián)。其他人則認(rèn)為中國(guó)人儲(chǔ)蓄是想買(mǎi)房,中國(guó)政府在上世紀(jì)90年代末實(shí)施了住房商品化改革。然而還有一些人說(shuō),生了男孩兒的家庭儲(chǔ)蓄尤其多是因?yàn)楦改赶霂椭鷥鹤痈菀椎厝⒌较眿D。
IMF economist Malhar Nabar has a different theory. The Chinese, he says, have a target amount of savings in mind to pay for homes, appliances, health care and what have you. And they will try to reach that target no matter what.
對(duì)此,IMF的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家納巴(Malhar Nabar)有不同看法。他說(shuō),中國(guó)人心中有一個(gè)儲(chǔ)蓄目標(biāo),因?yàn)樗麄冇匈I(mǎi)房、購(gòu)置家電、支付醫(yī)保賬單等一系列支出。無(wú)論發(fā)生什么情況,他們總會(huì)努力實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)。
So when banks pay less interest, after adjusting for inflation, they'll save more. And when they pay higher interest, they'll save less because it's then easier for them to hit their targets.
因此,當(dāng)銀行減少支付的利息之后(經(jīng)通脹因素調(diào)整),中國(guó)居民會(huì)增加儲(chǔ)蓄。而銀行增加支付的利息后,中國(guó)居民便會(huì)減少儲(chǔ)蓄,這是因?yàn)樗麄儠?huì)更容易地實(shí)現(xiàn)自己的儲(chǔ)蓄目標(biāo)。
Since 1996, the rates at Chinese banks have gotten progressively worse ─ meaning that they have fallen further and further below the rate of inflation. As a result, the Chinese have saved more and more. Thus, the worse the banks treat their customers, the more their customers save.
自1996年以來(lái),中國(guó)商業(yè)銀行支付的存款利率日益降低,這意味著存款利率和通貨膨脹率的差距越來(lái)越大。因此,中國(guó)人的儲(chǔ)蓄率越來(lái)越高。所以才有本文開(kāi)頭的結(jié)論:在中國(guó),存款利率越低,儲(chǔ)蓄率越高。
“A sustained increase in the interest rates on bank deposits, and wider access to alternative investment opportunities would make it easier for households to meet their target saving accumulation,” Nabar writes. In other words, they would save less when the banks treated them better.
納巴寫(xiě)道,持續(xù)提高銀行存款利率并拓寬居民進(jìn)行其它投資的渠道能令中國(guó)家庭更易實(shí)現(xiàn)他們的儲(chǔ)蓄目標(biāo)。換句話說(shuō),如果銀行能提高存款利率,中國(guó)家庭就會(huì)降低儲(chǔ)蓄率。
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