When the Hong Kong property market collapsed at the end of 1997, prices fell for nearly six years before bottoming out at one-third of the pre-crash level.

　　當(dāng)香港房地產(chǎn)市場于1997年底崩盤后，房價下跌走勢持續(xù)了近6年時間，最后止跌于崩盤前水平的三分之一。

　　The Asia financial crisis and the Sars epidemic were devastating blows to the territory in 1998 and 2002 respectively, but public policy controlling the supply of land and the provision of public housing was widely blamed for exacerbating and prolonging the property market decline. It fanned widespread anger towards the first postcolonial administration and contributed to the eventual ousting of Tung Chee-hwa, then chief executive.

　　亞洲金融危機(jī)和非典(Sars)疫情分別在1998年和2002年對香港造成了毀滅性打擊，但人們普遍將控制土地供應(yīng)和公屋供應(yīng)的公共政策歸咎為加劇并延長房地產(chǎn)市場滑坡的罪魁禍?zhǔn)?。這激起了人們對首屆香港特別行政區(qū)政府的普遍憤怒，也導(dǎo)致了首任特首董建華(Tung Chee-hwa)的最終辭職。

　　Today, Hong Kong is the world’s most expensive place to buy a home, according to global property agency Savills, following years of abundant liquidity in mainland China, ultra-low local interest rates and a supply shortage. Local indices show the average price in the secondary market is about HK$6,000 ($769) per square foot – about the same as in 1997, before the market crashed.

　　根據(jù)全球房地產(chǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)第一太平戴維斯(Savills)的數(shù)據(jù)，如今，在經(jīng)歷了多年的來自中國內(nèi)地的充沛流動性、本地超低利率以及供應(yīng)短缺后，香港成為全球房價最貴的地區(qū)。香港本地指數(shù)顯示，目前香港二手房均價約為每平方英尺6000港元(合769美元)，與1997年房地產(chǎn)市場崩盤之前的水平大體持平。

　　The question most people are asking is not whether there is going to be a correction, but how big it will be.

　　多數(shù)人現(xiàn)在的問題并非房價是否會出現(xiàn)調(diào)整，而是調(diào)整的幅度會有多大。

　　Transaction volumes and land sale prices have fallen recently, an indication that buyers and developers see risks increasing. Anecdotally, the wealthy mainland Chinese buyers who have been propping up the high end of the market are holding back as a result of Beijing’s tightening policies.

　　成交量和地價最近雙雙下跌，這表明，購房者和開發(fā)商都認(rèn)為風(fēng)險在上升。據(jù)坊間傳言，由于北京方面不斷收緊政策，一直支撐香港高端房地產(chǎn)市場的內(nèi)地富有購房者正停下腳步。

　　The government’s monetary hands are tied as Hong Kong is pegged to US interest rates. However, local banks have been raising mortgage rates since March as Hong Kong dollar loan growth outstrips deposit growth. Local savers are increasingly converting their Hong Kong dollars to the renminbi, while corporate borrowers are happy to pay higher interest rates in Hong Kong as it gets harder to borrow money on the mainland.

　　由于香港盯住美國利率，香港政府的貨幣政策對此無能為力。然而，自今年3月以來，隨著港元貸款增速超過存款增速，香港銀行一直在提高抵押貸款利率。越來越多的香港儲戶正將手中的港元兌換為人民幣，企業(yè)借款者也樂于支付香港更高的利率，因為它們在內(nèi)地更難借到資金。

　　Another damper on prices, analysts say, is a change in government policy. Apart from introducing short-term measures to cool the markets – anti-speculation stamp duties and lowering the loan-to-value ratio for high-end residential properties, for example – the government seems determined to increase land supply and stabilise property prices.

　　分析師表示，打壓房價的另一個因素是政府政策的變化。除了推出短期措施（例如征收打擊投機(jī)的印花稅，并降低豪宅的貸款與估值比率(LTV)）為房地產(chǎn)市場降溫之外，香港政府似乎決意擴(kuò)大土地供應(yīng)并穩(wěn)定房價。

　　It announced this year it would resume regular land sales and provide land sufficient for the annual construction of 20,000 private housing units for the next 10 years. It also said it would provide 15,000 public rental housing units a year to help those who cannot afford to buy a home.

　　香港政府今年宣布，將重啟定期土地拍賣，并提供足夠的土地，用于在未來10年每年建造2萬戶私人住宅。香港政府還表示，將每年提供1.5萬戶公屋，幫助那些買不起房子的人。

　　Donald Tsang, the chief executive, is widely expected to restart the Home Ownership Scheme – subsidised housing that low-to-mid income families can buy. This was suspended in 2002 when property prices were falling. If the government really commits itself to the 20,000 unit target – that is the annual average demand for new flats – it could go a long way to reducing price volatility caused by a big gap between demand and supply, analysts say.

　　外界普遍預(yù)期，香港特首曾蔭權(quán)(Donald Tsang)將重啟“居者有其屋”計劃(Home Ownership Scheme)，指興建中低收入家庭可以購買的補貼住房。2002年，隨著房價不斷下跌，該計劃遭到擱置。分析人士表示，如果香港政府真的兌現(xiàn)其每年建造2萬戶（這是每年新住宅的平均需求量）的承諾，這可能會大大有利于降低因供需巨大缺口導(dǎo)致的價格波動。

　　The government has a monopoly over the availability of new land for property development in the region and its traditional, supply-side approach is to halt land sales when prices are low and then sell a lot of land when prices are considered too high.

　　香港政府壟斷著該地區(qū)用于房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的新地供應(yīng)，其傳統(tǒng)的供應(yīng)策略是在房價較低時暫停土地拍賣，然后在房價被認(rèn)為過高時拍賣大量土地。

　　There are two problems, says Albert Wong, deputy chairman of Midland Holdings, a local estate agency. First, the government tends to make these decisions too late. “We were telling officials four, five years ago that they should start selling land again, but it’s taken them this long to do it, which is why prices have been rising since 2003,” he says.

　　香港房地產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司美聯(lián)集團(tuán)(Midland Holdings)副董事長黃錦康(Albert Wong)表示，這其中存在兩個問題。首先，政府這些決定往往來得太遲了。他表示：“四五年前我們就告訴官員，他們應(yīng)開始再次售地，但他們過了這么長時間才動手，這就是房價自2003年以來一直上漲的原因。”

　　Another problem is that, by the time the new flats are built – it usually takes three or four years to build a Hong Kong skyscraper – the market is likely to have changed. “Over 30,000 new private flats were completed in 1999, compared with average annual demand of 20,000. They were legacies of aggressive land sales in previous years designed to cool prices, when prices were still high. Instead of the desired effect, their arrival on the market put additional pressure on already falling prices,” he says.

　　另外一個問題是，到新房建成時（在香港建造一棟摩天大樓通常需要三四年的時間），房地產(chǎn)市場可能已發(fā)生了變化。他表示：“1999年，有超過3萬戶新建私人住宅完工，而每年的平均需求為2萬套。它們都是之前幾年房價高企時、為房價降溫而大規(guī)模售地的產(chǎn)物。這些新房的入市非但沒有達(dá)到預(yù)期效果，反而給已在下跌的房價帶來了更多的壓力。”

　　So how much will prices fall? Given that they have risen about 70 percent since 2009, most forecasts are not pointing to a big crash.

　　因此，香港房價將下跌多少？鑒于自2009年以來房價已上漲約70%，多數(shù)預(yù)測沒有指向大規(guī)模崩盤。

　　Andrew Lawrence, Barclays Capital’s head of regional property research, is among the most bearish of analysts. By his estimate, Hong Kong property prices will fall by 25 to 30 percent next year, sparked off by higher borrowing rates.

　　巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)區(qū)域房地產(chǎn)研究主管安德魯?勞倫斯(Andrew Lawrence)是態(tài)度最為悲觀的分析師之一。根據(jù)他的估計，香港房價明年將下跌25%至30%，直接原因是借款利率上升。

　　Yu Kam-hung, executive director of valuation and advisory services at CB Richard Ellis in Hong Kong, is expecting a 10 to 20 percent fall in the next 18 months. “All the major positive drivers of prices are over and done with. There can only be less money coming in from mainland buyers, and interest rates have bottomed,” he says. “But the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar – which makes local assets relatively cheaper for overseas buyers – and the continued shortage of first-hand property should give some support to the market.”

　　香港世邦魏理仕(CB Richard Ellis)估值和咨詢服務(wù)執(zhí)行董事余錦雄(Yu Kam-hung)預(yù)計，未來18個月，香港房價將下跌10%至20%。“所有推動房價的主要正面因素已消失。來自內(nèi)地購房者的資金可能只會減少，而且利率已觸底，”他表示，“但港元貶值（這令本地資產(chǎn)對于海外買家而言相對廉價）以及一手房持續(xù)短缺，應(yīng)該會為市場提供一些支撐。”

　　There will be fresh demand from mainland buyers if the Hong Kong currency falls by as much as 10 percent in the coming year, he says. If the devaluation happens at a slower pace – say 3 to 4 percent – the attraction for overseas buyers will not change much, he adds.

　　他表示，如果未來一年港元下跌10%，內(nèi)地購房者的需求將再度出現(xiàn)。他補充稱，如果貶值速度慢一些，例如3%至4%，對海外買家的吸引力將不會出現(xiàn)很大改觀。

　　An adjustment is overdue, says Chak Wong, a finance professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “You shouldn’t have a market where people end up paying 12 times their household income for a flat,” he says.

　　香港中文大學(xué)(Chinese University of Hong Kong)金融學(xué)教授王澤基(Chak Wong)表示，房價早就應(yīng)該調(diào)整。他表示：“房地產(chǎn)市場不應(yīng)該讓人們的購房成本達(dá)到家庭收入的12倍。