The revelation there are large stocks of copper in China isn’t new, but the bigger question is口why now?

　　對于中國有大量銅庫存的披露已不是什么新聞，但更大的疑惑是：為什么趕在現(xiàn)在披露呢？

　　Industry participants attending the International Study Group meeting in Lisbon recently said Dr. Bo Zhao, deputy director Copper Department, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told delegates that China’s copper inventories were 1.9 million metric tons at the end of last year.

　　出席了前不久在葡萄牙里斯本召開的國際銅業(yè)研究組織大會的業(yè)內人士說，中國有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會銅部副主任趙波博士告訴與會人員，中國去年年底的銅庫存為190萬噸。

　　While this may sound significant given that analysts have long proclaimed the market to be in a supply-demand deficit, his comments are in line with estimates by traders, merchants and banks active in China’s copper sector, who say the country is awash with the metal.

　　考慮到分析人士長期以來一直聲稱銅市處于供需不足的狀態(tài)，190萬噸的銅庫存聽起來好像是個很大的數(shù)字，不過趙波的這番言論與那些活躍在中國銅業(yè)、說中國有大量銅庫存的交易員、商家及銀行的估計是一致的。

　　Even more recently, subsidiaries of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc. both separately estimated in filings made to the U.S. regulator for proposed exchange-traded funds that the physical copper market is at least 2.5 million tons, including inventories of end users and other market participants such as producers, traders and transit stocks. That doesn’t include exchange stocks, which are over 500,000 tons.

　　就在最近，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和貝萊德(BlackRock Inc.)旗下子公司在提交給美國監(jiān)管機構的交易所買賣基金申報文件中不約而同地估測，實物銅的市場規(guī)模至少在250萬噸，其中包括終端用戶以及生產商、交易者和在途庫存等市場參與者的庫存量。這還并不包括交易所超過50萬噸的銅庫存。

　　So what is actually far more interesting is the timing of Dr. Bo’s comments.

　　因此，更耐人尋味的實際上是趙波做出上述評論的時間。

　　China has for decades classified the amount of metal it holds in stockpiles as a strategic state secret. Copper is critical for China because the country is the world’s largest consumer of the metal and uses it in housing, construction and infrastructure to power its exponential growth. It doesn’t have decent mine supplies of its own, so has imported vast tonnages through the years, driving copper prices and keeping market bulls happy.

　　幾十年來，中國一直把銅的庫存量歸為戰(zhàn)略性國家機密。銅對中國來說至關重要，因為中國是世界上最大的銅消費國，其住房、建設和基礎設施等領域都要用到銅，并以此推動本國經濟飛速增長。中國本身并沒有大規(guī)模的銅供應，所以多年來一直從海外大量進口，這不僅推高了銅價，也讓看好銅市的人甚為歡喜。

　　That story is coming to an end as China’s growth engine has started to slowly but steadily creak, with the free and easy money that helped imports to continue having long dried-up. It’s been some time since copper producers could point to Chinese imports for evidence that the country was the savior of the market, riding to its rescue with still strong demand despite a global downturn.

　　然而隨著中國增長引擎開始穩(wěn)步減速，關于銅的神話也即將終結，曾幫助中國繼續(xù)進口銅的無償或低息貸款在很久以前就已用盡。銅生產商曾經以中國銅進口作為中國是銅市救世主的證據(jù)，認為盡管世界經濟衰退，中國的銅需求卻仍然強勁，可惜這一切已是昨日黃花。

　　Copper prices have shaved more than 30% since peaking at an all-time high in February of $10,190/ton, partly as the world’s economies teeter on the verge of another downturn and partly because China hasn’t been buying.

　　銅價自今年2月創(chuàng)下每噸10,190美元的歷史最高水平以來，已累計下挫逾30%。從一定程度上說，這既是因為世界各國再次徘徊在衰退邊緣，同時也是因為這短時間里缺少了中國對銅的采購。

　　In fact, the comments from China in recent weeks have been overwhelmingly bearish.

　　實際上，近幾周來自中國的言論一直極度悲觀。

　　The Bank of China warned this week that the global economy is on the verge of a double-dip recession and cautioned of a slowdown in their country's own growth as a result. Comments by one of the nation's four state-run commercial banks aren't taken lightly by the markets, with the metals sector in particular sitting up to take note.

　　中國銀行本周警告說，全球經濟處于二次衰退的邊緣，并提醒說中國經濟增速可能因此放緩。中國四大國有商業(yè)銀行之一的話不會被市場輕視，金屬行業(yè)尤其對此倍加關注。

　　Its September trade surplus is smaller than expected; anecdotal reports suggest the country's informal lending sector is on the verge of a Chinese version of the euro-zone credit crisis; and the battle against inflation continues.

　　9月份中國貿易順差小于預期。有未經證實的報道說，中國的民間借貸處于類似歐元區(qū)信貸危機的邊緣。此外，通脹阻擊戰(zhàn)仍在繼續(xù)。

　　Then reports of Dr. Bo's comments started to filter out.

　　之后，各種有關趙波言論的報道開始紛紛出來。

　　More apparently bad news for copper, if its biggest consumer said the country had plenty of material.

　　對銅來說更明顯的壞消息是，最大的銅消費國說自己有著大量的銅材。

　　There could be another explanation, however. The effect of the comments has been to dampen sentiment further and cap any upside that prices were starting to see this week. Investors have short memories, with the ETF filing estimates already long-forgotten. The market will probably never know exactly how much copper is sitting in Chinese warehouses, ports and even, if tales are to be believed, next to the pigs in farmers' fields.

　　不過，還可能有另外一種解釋。中國這樣說是為了進一步給投資熱情降溫，遏制銅價本周開始出現(xiàn)的上漲勢頭。投資者非常健忘，交易所買賣基金申報文件中的估測數(shù)據(jù)早被拋到腦后。市場可能永遠無法確切知道中國的倉庫、港口，甚至是農田里游走的豬旁邊（如果可以相信傳言的話）有多少銅。

　　And what exactly does China want, as a buyer of metal? Lower prices. If the country has been destocking, using up some of the metal it bought before prices soared, then it's going to need to buy more again soon. Import data earlier Thursday showed that China was savvy enough to do that last month, with refined copper imports reaching their highest for 16 months.

　　此外，中國作為金屬買家到底想要什么？更低的價格。如果中國一直在清空庫存，用去價格飆升之前買進的一部分銅，那么它很快會需要買進更多的銅。周四早些時候公布的進口數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國上個月明智地買進了銅，精銅進口量達到16個月來的最高水平。

　　Underestimating China is the last thing any copper market participant should ever do.

　　銅市場的任何參與者都不應該低估中國。