Demand for copper is surging in China. How that fact might affect prices of the metal is another story.

　　中國(guó)對(duì)銅的需求大量增加，但這一事實(shí)可能會(huì)如何影響銅價(jià)就是另外一回事了。

　　The metal, dubbed “Dr. Copper” for the apparent ability of its price to forecast global industrial activity, has gone on a volatile ride over the past year -- not surprising amid will-they-won't-they budgeting in Washington, default fears in Europe and Middle Eastern turmoil.

　　Bloomberg News過(guò)去一年，銅價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)。由于美國(guó)政府是否會(huì)提高預(yù)算上限還是未知數(shù)，加之歐洲債務(wù)違約的擔(dān)憂和中東地區(qū)的動(dòng)蕩，銅價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)不足為奇。銅常被稱作“銅博士”，因?yàn)殂~價(jià)明顯具有預(yù)測(cè)全球工業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的能力。

　　China is the biggest buyer of copper, but looking at the country's sustained high level of economic growth isn't making it any easier to predict what will happen with the metal.

　　中國(guó)是銅的最大買(mǎi)家，但觀察中國(guó)持續(xù)高速增長(zhǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)并不會(huì)令預(yù)測(cè)銅價(jià)的走勢(shì)變得更加容易。

　　What's next was the big question last week in Shanghai, where the specialist publisher Metal Bulletin gathered delegates to ponder, not whether China matters, but how.

　　上周在上海，大家關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)是銅價(jià)的下一步走勢(shì)。專業(yè)出版商英國(guó)《金屬導(dǎo)報(bào)》（Metal Bulletin）在上海召集與會(huì)代表，探討中國(guó)對(duì)銅的需求將如何影響銅價(jià)的下一步走勢(shì)，而非中國(guó)需求是否會(huì)影響銅價(jià)。

　　Copper is hovering just above $8,700 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, and China will have a lot to do with whether it surges another 15% toward $10,000 as some producers hope, or plunges by $6,000-plus as one provocateur told the assembly.

　　倫敦金屬交易所（London Metal Exchange）的銅價(jià)在每噸8,700美元上方徘徊，而銅價(jià)能否再漲15%朝每噸1萬(wàn)美元的價(jià)格進(jìn)發(fā)（這正是一些生產(chǎn)商所希望的），還是會(huì)跌去6,000多美元（這是一位聳人聽(tīng)聞?wù)咴诖髸?huì)上說(shuō)的），則和中國(guó)有很大關(guān)系。

　　'Global demand is strong and it will be driven by Asia, notably China,' declared Kim Priestly, the Utah-based chief financial officer of copper for giant miner Rio Tinto Plc.

　　礦業(yè)巨頭力拓股份有限公司（Rio Tinto Plc）駐美國(guó)猶他州負(fù)責(zé)銅業(yè)務(wù)的首席財(cái)務(wù)長(zhǎng)普里斯特利（Kim Priestly）說(shuō)，全球?qū)︺~的需求強(qiáng)勁，這一需求將受亞洲的推動(dòng)，其中最主要的就是中國(guó)。

　　Ms. Priestly told attendees at the conference that China can satisfy only 40% of copper needed to power its smelters today and that Rio Tinto sees that figure sliding toward 30% in coming years. A 2.5 million metric ton shortfall annually around 2020 will require even more imports, she said.

　　普里斯特利在本次大會(huì)上告訴與會(huì)者，目前中國(guó)冶金用銅的自給度只有40%，力拓預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾年這一數(shù)字會(huì)下滑到30%。普里斯特利說(shuō)，大約到2020年中國(guó)每年的銅需求缺口可達(dá)250萬(wàn)噸，中國(guó)因此需要進(jìn)口更多的銅。

　　Perhaps predictably, Rio Tinto has China's answer: 80 kilometers across the border in Mongolia, a massive project called Oyu Tolgoi that is forecast to begin commercial production in the first half of 2013. Lest analysts take away a view from Ms. Priestly that the mine, owned by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. and operated by Rio Tinto, will collapse prices two-years' hence, she cautioned production will ramp up only over time. She also acknowledged so far there are no firm plans as to where the Gobi Desert mine itself will get electricity or how the copper might be transported out. She said Rio Tinto is “very bullish” on copper.

　　或許可以預(yù)見(jiàn)的是，中國(guó)該從哪里進(jìn)口銅，力拓已經(jīng)有了答案：距中蒙邊境80公里有一個(gè)名叫奧尤陶勒蓋（Oyu Tolgoi）的銅金礦大型項(xiàng)目，該項(xiàng)目預(yù)計(jì)能在2013年上半年開(kāi)始商業(yè)生產(chǎn)。奧尤陶勒蓋銅金礦由加拿大艾芬豪礦業(yè)有限公司（Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.）所有，力拓負(fù)責(zé)運(yùn)營(yíng)。由于擔(dān)心分析師從自己的講話中得出該銅金礦的開(kāi)發(fā)在未來(lái)兩年會(huì)拉低銅價(jià)的結(jié)論，普里斯特利告誡說(shuō)這個(gè)銅金礦的產(chǎn)出只會(huì)逐漸增加。她同時(shí)承認(rèn)，到目前為止關(guān)于奧尤陶勒蓋項(xiàng)目將從何處獲得電力供應(yīng)，以及產(chǎn)出的銅將如何運(yùn)出都還沒(méi)有具體的計(jì)劃。不過(guò)她說(shuō)力拓非?？春勉~的前景。

　　Other miners are keen to supply China too, including Beijing-based China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co., which fancies itself the Chinese Rio Tinto. But don't expect Minmetals to make aggressive investments in the world's copper mines.

　　其它礦業(yè)企業(yè)也都渴望滿足中國(guó)的需求，其中包括位于北京的中國(guó)五礦有色金屬股份有限公司（China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co.，簡(jiǎn)稱：五礦有色）。五礦有色將自己比作中國(guó)的力拓。但不要指望五礦有色會(huì)大舉投資全球銅礦。

　　“We don't consider ourselves an experienced company in overseas investment,” said Jin Xiaoguang, the company's deputy general manager. He spent much of a presentation discussing the “surprises” the company has faced pursuing projects outside China, such as land purchase challenges in Africa and knotty water rights in South America.

　　五礦有色副總經(jīng)理金霄光說(shuō)，我不認(rèn)為我們公司在海外投資上很有經(jīng)驗(yàn)。金霄光的發(fā)言大部分在談五礦有色在國(guó)外收購(gòu)項(xiàng)目時(shí)碰到的各種“意外”，比如在非洲買(mǎi)地遇到的挑戰(zhàn)，以及在南美洲碰上的棘手的水權(quán)問(wèn)題。

　　“China is short of copper,” said Yang Yinghuai, general manager of metals at Cofco Futures Ltd., one of China's top trading houses. “In the next three to five years this situation cannot be changed.”

　　中糧期貨經(jīng)紀(jì)有限公司（Cofco Futures Ltd.）金屬交易負(fù)責(zé)人楊應(yīng)淮（音）說(shuō)，中國(guó)缺銅，未來(lái)三到五年這一狀況不會(huì)改變。

　　Cofco's view, she said, is copper could soon hit $8,800 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, but then slip toward $6,500 perton toward the end of this year, where Chinese buyers will be waiting to bid it higher.

　　楊應(yīng)淮說(shuō)，中糧期貨的觀點(diǎn)是，倫敦金屬交易所的銅價(jià)可能很快會(huì)沖擊每噸8,800美元的價(jià)位。但此后隨著年底的臨近，價(jià)格會(huì)逐步下滑到每噸6,500美元。中國(guó)買(mǎi)家將守候在這一價(jià)位買(mǎi)入，然后價(jià)格會(huì)再次逐步上漲。

　　But actually how much demand does China have?

　　但實(shí)際上中國(guó)到底有多少需求呢？

　　Bo Zhao, deputy director for copper at China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, said that according to official numbers China's consumption of copper edged up to 7.513 million metric tons in 2010, a rise of 4.1% from the previous year and 3.8-times the tonnage of 2000.

　　中國(guó)有色金屬工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)銅部副主任趙波說(shuō)，根據(jù)官方數(shù)據(jù)，中國(guó)2010年銅的消耗量高達(dá)751.3萬(wàn)噸，較上年增長(zhǎng)4.1%，是2000年的3.8倍。

　　Yet, he cautioned that actual Chinese demand in 2010 was only 6.3 million tons. Much of the rest, he said, went into building up inventories.

　　不過(guò)他提醒說(shuō)中國(guó)2010年實(shí)際的銅需求量只有630萬(wàn)噸。他說(shuō)其他大部分都用在了增加庫(kù)存上。

　　There are multiple ways of gauging Chinese demand. “A large part of the apparent consumption was for export,” said Chen Hongzhou, director of Chinalco Luoyang Copper Co.

　　衡量中國(guó)的需求有多種方法。中鋁洛陽(yáng)銅業(yè)有限公司董事陳宏州（音）說(shuō)，表面上的消耗量大部分都用在了出口上。

　　China will make 150 million air conditioners this year, Mr. Chen said, predicting quite a few of the machines will be exported. With global economic headwinds bearing down, Mr. Chen wondered how long some of China's factory owners can stay in business, describing many companies as cash-strapped from price wars and uncollectable debts, often with high production but truly earning “zero dollars.”

　　陳宏州說(shuō)，中國(guó)今年將生產(chǎn)1.5億臺(tái)空調(diào)，他預(yù)計(jì)其中相當(dāng)一部分會(huì)用于出口。在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)逆風(fēng)逼近的情況下，陳宏州懷疑中國(guó)有些廠家還能維持多久，他說(shuō)許多公司由于價(jià)格戰(zhàn)和壞賬陷入資金短缺，產(chǎn)量往往很高但實(shí)際卻一分都賺不到。

　　Speaking on the sidelines, one conference attendee, representing a Ningbo-based trading firm, said she will import as much copper as she can get.

　　寧波一家交易公司的與會(huì)代表在會(huì)議間隙說(shuō)，她會(huì)進(jìn)口盡量多的銅。

　　As others at the conference wrung their hands over what predictions of copper-free refrigerators and electrical line might mean for copper prices, the young woman said she focuses on banks, not factories. Her concern is how much longer she will be able to borrow U.S. dollars in Hong Kong at the rock bottom annual interest rate of 0.2% and how quickly the Chinese yuan will gain against the American currency. That's because her trade is to borrow dollars in Hong Kong, buy copper on international markets, ship it to bonded warehouses in Shanghai and then sell it as far in the future as possible to buyers in China who pay in yuan. Sometimes she uses the same loan to make the play three times.

　　當(dāng)無(wú)銅冰箱和電線的預(yù)測(cè)可能對(duì)銅價(jià)帶來(lái)的影響讓其他與會(huì)者憂心忡忡時(shí)，這位年輕的代表說(shuō)她關(guān)注的是銀行而不是工廠。她擔(dān)心的問(wèn)題是，以0.2%的最低年利率在香港貸款美元還能持續(xù)多久，以及人民幣對(duì)美元升值的速度會(huì)有多快。這是因?yàn)樗慕灰琢鞒淌牵谙愀圪J款美元，在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上買(mǎi)銅，將銅運(yùn)往上海的保稅倉(cāng)庫(kù)，然后將其以盡可能長(zhǎng)的期貨合約期限賣(mài)給支付人民幣的中國(guó)買(mǎi)家。有時(shí)她會(huì)用同一筆貸款以這種形式操作三次。

　　One of the event's featured speakers, Simon Hunt, detonated the copper conference equivalent of a stink bomb with a prediction the metal is headed toward $2,000 per ton, about a fifth where it is priced today. Speaking quickly in a powerful voice, the principal of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, weaved a story of woeful global economic decline, 'funny money' from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the form of easy credit, likely recession in Germany and soaring use of recycled copper.

　　活動(dòng)特約演講人之一、銅業(yè)咨詢公司Simon Hunt Strategic Services負(fù)責(zé)人亨特（Simon Hunt）在這次會(huì)議上引爆了一顆“臭炸彈”，他預(yù)測(cè)銅價(jià)走勢(shì)是滑向每噸2,000美元，約為目前價(jià)格的五分之一。他以較快的語(yǔ)速和有力的聲音敘述了目前的形勢(shì)：形勢(shì)不佳的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（U.S. Federal Reserve）以寬松信貸形式濫發(fā)的貨幣、德國(guó)可能會(huì)發(fā)生衰退以及回收銅的使用會(huì)激增。

　　But his bedrock -- counterintuitive -- reason copper is overvalued: China's blistering demand.

　　但他認(rèn)為銅被高估的基本原因是：中國(guó)需求的增長(zhǎng)。這未免有悖于直覺(jué)。

　　Mr. Hunt estimates that investors have squirreled away a whopping 4 million tons of copper, a figure that compares with around 18 million tons of annual global consumption. He said 2.5 million tons of that is in Chinese warehouses off the industry radar, and he figures 65% of the country's copper imports related to financial plays, not end-user demand. The risk is massive copper selling, which he predicts will take place when U.S. interest rates head higher.

　　亨特估計(jì)投資者囤積了多達(dá)400萬(wàn)噸的銅，而全球年消耗量約為1,800萬(wàn)噸。他說(shuō)，其中250萬(wàn)噸的銅都在中國(guó)倉(cāng)庫(kù)里未被納入行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，他認(rèn)為中國(guó)65%的銅進(jìn)口都與金融操作有關(guān)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在于大規(guī)模拋售銅，他預(yù)測(cè)當(dāng)美國(guó)利率升高時(shí)就會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況。

　　His detractors grumbled that Mr. Hunt is a perennial bear, purposely vague about his data sources and keen to stir up business on his own after sale of the respected firm that carries his name, Brook Hunt. But he was the most talked-about feature of the conference.

　　亨特的批評(píng)者抱怨說(shuō)他是個(gè)頑固的做空者，他故意對(duì)自己的數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源含糊其辭，急于在帶有自己名字的知名金屬咨詢公司Brook Hunt出售后為自己招攬業(yè)務(wù)。但他是這次大會(huì)最受熱議的嘉賓。

　　Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Hunt explained how he can know how much copper sits in warehouses no one is counting: trade in the metal compared with smelter consumption of copper. “I'm confident about my numbers of what copper went into furnaces,” he said.

　　在接受《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》采訪時(shí)，亨特解釋了在沒(méi)有人統(tǒng)計(jì)的情況下自己是如何知道銅的倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)量的：將銅的交易量與冶煉量作對(duì)比。他說(shuō)，對(duì)于有多少銅進(jìn)了熔爐，我很有把握。

　　“The copper market is not being driven by the copper industry but the behavior of financial market players,” Mr. Hunt said.

　　亨特說(shuō)，銅市場(chǎng)并不是受銅行業(yè)的驅(qū)動(dòng)，而是受金融市場(chǎng)操作行為的驅(qū)動(dòng)。