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A new way for indebted European governments to relieve the pressure: Hint that China will ride to the rescue with its mountain of foreign-exchange reserves.
債務(wù)纏身的歐洲政府緩解壓力的一個新方法是:暗示中國將用自己的巨額外匯儲備出手相救。
Rome is the latest to hope that Beijing will save it from the monsters in the bond market. Officials from its finance ministry are in discussions with China over a significant purchase of Italian bonds. They follow a long line of Spanish, Greek and Hungarian hopefuls who have trumpeted an increase in Chinese purchases.
羅馬是最新一個希望北京將把它從債市妖魔手中拯救出來的歐洲政府。意大利財政部的官員們正在與中國就大量購買意大利國債舉行會談。在意大利政府之前,有希望得到救助的西班牙、希臘和匈牙利政府都曾大肆宣揚中國會增持其國債。
China certainly has the funds to make a difference. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange manages $3.19 trillion in reserves, with $274 billion to spend in the first half of 2011. A similar amount in the second half would allow China to cover the cost of redeeming all the debt the Italian finance ministry has falling due.
中國無疑擁有可以帶來巨大不同的資金。中國國家外匯管理局管理著3.19萬億美元外匯儲備,其中2011年上半年將用掉2,740億美元。下半年的類似數(shù)額將使中國有能力買下意大利財政部即將到期的全部債務(wù)。
China hasn't been shy about claiming credit for supporting Europe in its hour of need. Beijing has also extracted substantial value from side deals, snapping up strategic assets at bargain basement prices. A Greek port leased by state-owned shipping giant Cosco was the most visible. But evidence of a genuine increase in purchases of distressed European sovereign debt is lacking.
中國一直不避諱自稱是在危難時刻向歐洲提供支持的功臣。北京還從附帶的交易中獲得了相當(dāng)大的價值,以極低的價格收購了戰(zhàn)略性資產(chǎn)。中國國有航運巨頭中國遠洋租賃的一個希臘港口是最明顯的例證。不過,卻缺乏證據(jù)證明中國確實增持了陷入困境的歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)。
Consider press reports in July 2010 that SAFE had purchased upward of $500 million in Spanish 10-year debt. That was seen as a vote of confidence in Europe. But any positive impact on sentiment was short-lived. Yields edged down slightly from 4.6% the day the news broke, but by the end of November they had climbed to 5.5%.
想想2010年7月媒體報道的國家外匯管理局購買了逾5億美元的10年期西班牙國債。當(dāng)時此舉被視為是對歐洲投了信任票。但對投資者信心的正面影響卻是短暫的。收益率較消息出爐日的4.6%小幅走低,但去年11月底前收益率攀升至5.5%。
Greece had little more luck. In October 2010, Premier Wen Jiabao made a much-publicized visit in which he promised unwavering support. But if China was buying Greek debt in large volumes, it wasn't evident in the markets. The yield on Greek 10-year debt dipped slightly from 10.1% at the beginning of October, but by the end of the year, it had reached 12.4% and is now at 21.3%.
希臘的運氣也沒好多少。2010年10月,中國國務(wù)院總理溫家寶高調(diào)訪問希臘,期間他承諾堅決提供支持。不過,如果中國大量購買了希臘國債,在市場上卻沒有體現(xiàn)出來。10年期希臘國債收益率較10月初的10.1%小幅下滑,但截至年底前收益率達到了12.4%,目前則高達21.3%。
Stepping back from the detail, it makes little sense for China to increase its purchases of high-risk European debt. Beijing is concerned enough about the risk of default from the U.S. after the unseemly squabbling over the debt ceiling. They are hardly likely to solve the problem by piling into even riskier assets.
姑且不談這些細節(jié),中國增持高風(fēng)險的歐洲國債幾乎毫無道理。在美國有失顏面的債務(wù)上限論戰(zhàn)后,北京已經(jīng)很擔(dān)心美國違約的風(fēng)險。他們不太可能買進更加危險的資產(chǎn)來解決這個問題。
For embattled politicians in Italy and elsewhere, hinting that China is riding to the rescue provides a temporary respite from the steady increase in debt financing pressure. Cozying up to China might also encourage Germany and other neighbors to offer more of a helping hand. But countries hoping for anything more will have an additional cause for distress.
對于意大利等國四面楚歌的政界人士來說,暗示中國將出手相救,這可以在債務(wù)融資壓力穩(wěn)步增加時提供暫時喘息的機會。向中國示好還可能促使德國和其他鄰國更多地伸出援手。但那些希望獲得除此之外更多東西的國家只會自添煩惱。
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