Developing economies aren't fixing to overtake the U.S. and Europe anytime soon, despite anxieties to the contrary.

　　雖然有人擔(dān)心發(fā)展中國家即將取代美國和歐洲的地位，但這樣的情況不會很快發(fā)生。

　　A paper presented at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole conference by Harvard University's Dani Rodrik asserts that challenges faced by economies like China and others means it will be harder for those areas to catch up than many now believe.

　　哈佛大學(xué)(Harvard University)的羅德里克(Dani Rodrik)提交給堪薩斯城聯(lián)邦儲備銀行(Kansas City Fed)杰克遜霍爾會議的一篇論文認(rèn)為，中國等經(jīng)濟體面臨的挑戰(zhàn)意味著它們趕上歐美的難度比一些人目前認(rèn)為的更大。

　　“Rapid convergence is possible in principle, but unlikely in practice,” Rodrik writes. “Our baseline scenario has to be one in which high growth remains episodic,” and “sustained convergence is likely to remain restricted to a relatively small number of countries,” he said.

　　Reed Saxon/Associated Press2011年8月26日，在懷俄明州杰克遜城舉行的經(jīng)濟政策研討會早間會議開始前，一名工作人員正在日出時分清潔玻璃窗。羅德里克寫道，迅速趨同在原則上可行，但在現(xiàn)實中不太可能；我們的基準(zhǔn)預(yù)測只能是高增長繼續(xù)呈現(xiàn)為不連續(xù)狀態(tài)；持續(xù)趨同可能仍將局限于數(shù)量相對較少的幾個國家。

　　The academic said much of the rapid rate of growth seen in the developed world is tied in large part to manufacturing. There, productivity rates are key, and he notes that when a nation embarks upon this path, productivity increases are initially fast and steady. “Once an economy gets to produce electric generators, say, or motor vehicles, labor productivity in that industry is placed on an automatic upward trajectory,” and “the trajectory is steeper the lower the starting point,” he wrote.

　　這位學(xué)者說，發(fā)達(dá)國家經(jīng)歷的高增長很大程度上與制造業(yè)有關(guān)，而生產(chǎn)率是制造業(yè)的關(guān)鍵。他指出，當(dāng)一個國家走上這條道路的時候，生產(chǎn)率的增長最初是快速而穩(wěn)定的，而且他指出，一旦經(jīng)濟體開始生產(chǎn)發(fā)電機或者是汽車之類的東西，這個行業(yè)的勞動生產(chǎn)率就進入了一個自動向上的軌跡；起點越低，這個軌跡就越陡。

　　Rodrik's paper was an attempt to counter a growing belief that the malaise affecting the U.S. and Europe is opening the door to dominance by what were once emerging nations. The fears are particularly stark due to the rapid growth of China, the rise of which has fueled trade and financial market imbalances. The paper even refers to a 2010 novel titled “Super Sad True Love Story,” in which the U.S. economy has crashed, and the nation is under the thumb of foreign forces. The Harvard economists sees little chance of that world coming to pass.

　　羅德里克這篇論文是想反駁這樣一個觀點：越來越多的人相信，美國和歐洲的萎靡不振正在為曾經(jīng)的新興市場國家占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位創(chuàng)造條件。中國的崛起加劇了貿(mào)易和金融市場的失衡，它的高增長使這種擔(dān)憂尤其強烈。論文甚至提到2010年發(fā)表的小說《悲傷的愛情故事》(Super Sad True Love Story)。在小說中，美國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)崩潰，整個國家都聽從于外國勢力的指使。羅德里克認(rèn)為，這樣一個世界很難成為現(xiàn)實。

　　“Growth in the developing world should depend not on growth in the advanced economies themselves, but on the difference in the productivity levels of the two groups of countries -- in other words, on the convergence gap,” he writes. “The rate at which lagging economies catch up is determined by their ability to absorb ideas and knowledge from the technology frontier.”

　　羅德里克寫道，發(fā)展中國家的增長應(yīng)該不是依賴于發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟體增長率本身，而是依賴于兩類國家生產(chǎn)率水平的差別，即“趨同差距”(convergence gap)；落后經(jīng)濟體的追趕速度取決于它們從科技前沿吸收創(chuàng)意和知識的能力。

　　As he sees it, Rodrik sees high rates of emerging market growth as a sign of how much ground there is to cover. “The developing countries” convergence gap stands as wide today as in 1950 (even though it has closed somewhat over the last decade). He adds, “consequently, their potential growth rate is as high as it has ever been since the end of the Second World War.”

　　羅德里克認(rèn)為，新興市場的高增長反映的是還有多少路需要趕。他寫道，發(fā)展中國家今天的趨同差距和1950年時候一樣大（雖然過去10年或多或少有所收窄），所以，它們的潛在增長率和第二次世界大戰(zhàn)結(jié)束以來任何時候一樣高。

　　Some of the paper also dealt with how reforms in developing nations have aided their economic development. Rodrik said these “better governed” lands have largely helped shore themselves up against the forces which in the past have led them to face unexpected shocks that disrupted their growth.

　　論文的部分內(nèi)容還談到發(fā)展中國家的改革是怎樣為它們的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展提供了幫助。羅德里克說，這些“治理更好”的國家基本上已經(jīng)擋住了過去曾讓它們面臨意外沖擊、擾亂其經(jīng)濟增長的力量。

　　Rodrik also said if China does what nations like the U.S. want and boost domestic growth and rely less on exports, growth there could slow. “If what matters for China's growth is ultimately the structure of production, a shift in the composition of demand may do real harm to the economy's growth,” the researcher wrote. “A reorientation towards services and domestic consumption would reduce the demand for its industrial products and blunt the forces of convergence described earlier,” he said.

　　羅德里克還說，如果中國按照美國等國家的愿望提振國內(nèi)增長、減輕對出口的依賴，其增長速度則有可能放緩。他寫道，如果說最終關(guān)系到中國增長速度的是生產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)，那么需求結(jié)構(gòu)的變化可能會對這個經(jīng)濟體的增長速度造成實實在在的傷害；如果朝著服務(wù)和國內(nèi)消費重新調(diào)整，則會降低其工業(yè)產(chǎn)品的需求，減弱前述趨同力量。