Even arguably the world's most powerful man seems unable to dampen gold's shine. Reuters

　　美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬(Barack Obama)可以說是世界上最有權力的人，但他似乎也無法掩蓋黃金的光芒。

　　U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday that the country's sparring political parties have reached a tentative deal to raise the country's debt ceiling, cut the federal deficit and avoid a credit default. The news has taken the wind out of gold's sails, pushing prices some $25 a troy ounce down from their recent high, but the market's longer-term prospects don't appear to be significantly dented.

　　奧巴馬周日說，美國打打鬧鬧的兩個政黨已經達成了提高債務上限、削減聯(lián)邦赤字、避免信用違約的初步協(xié)議。這一消息曾給黃金造成打擊，使其價格較近期高點下跌了大約每盎司25美元。但這個市場更長期的前景似乎并沒有受到明顯影響。

　　Gold has been widely viewed as a safe place to put money as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, which have suffered as the potential for systemic financial risk has increased. The market peaked at an all-time high of $1,632.74/oz Friday, aided by deteriorating confidence in the U.S. dollar and a euro zone ricocheting from one economic disaster to another.

　　由于出現(xiàn)系統(tǒng)性金融風險的可能性增加，美國國債和美元遭受打擊，而黃金又被普遍視為替代性的安全投資工具。上周五，因投資者對美元越來越沒有信心，而歐元區(qū)躲過一個經濟災難又遇上另一個災難，黃金價格見頂于每盎司1,632.74美元的歷史高點。

　　A large number of investors are holding long positions in gold, heightening the potential for a sizeable selloff if both chambers of Congress vote to accept the deal.

　　很多投資者是持有黃金多頭，所以如果參眾兩院都表決通過奧巴馬所說的協(xié)議，黃金價格就更有可能急劇下跌。

　　But there are enough rumblings of negativity, particularly around the outlook for the dollar, to keep gold's appeal as a safe bet intact.

　　但悲觀討論有很多，特別是關于美元的前景，這些討論足以讓黃金作為避險工具的吸引力不受影響。

　　"On Aug. 1, the U.S. dollar officially lost its place as the world's safe currency as a store of value,' said Tom Winnifrith, a fund manager at t1ps Investment Management. 'In the absence of an alternative, the only currency whose value is not being systematically destroyed by politicians remains gold, and if you think recent increases in the gold price were startling, you ain't seen nothing yet."

　　投資管理公司t1ps Investment Management基金經理溫尼弗里思(Tom Winnifrith)說，8月1日，美元正式失去它作為世界安全儲值貨幣的地位；在缺乏替代品的情況下，唯一一個沒有被政治家系統(tǒng)性地毀掉價值的貨幣依舊是黃金，而如果你覺得近期金價的上漲讓人吃驚，好戲還在后頭。

　　Winnifrith is tipping gold to reach $2,100/oz before the next U.S. presidential election in 2012.

　　溫尼弗里思預計金價將在美國2012年下次總統(tǒng)選舉之前達到每盎司2,100美元。

　　Although others argue the dollar has already fallen in anticipation of a U.S. default or downgrade, and that major holders--like China--won't rush for the exit, they concede that the fallout will be felt for years to come, adding to gold's allure.

　　其他人說，因為投資者預期美國違約或被下調評級，美元已經而下跌，而且中國等其他重要持有人也不會急著退出。但他們也承認，后續(xù)影響將為時數年，從而使黃金的魅力進一步增加。

　　The passage of the proposed debt deal isn't a done deal. Its fate may be assured in the Senate, but Republican representatives are likely to give the bill a tougher ride. Both houses need to accept the proposal for it to become law. Even if agreement is quickly reached by Congress, the reaction of the ratings agencies poses a larger question mark.

　　擬議的債務方案還不一定能夠獲得通過。其命運在參議院可能是有保障的，但共和黨眾議員可能不會讓它那么順利通過。議案要成為法律，則必須在兩院獲得通過。即使國會很快達成協(xié)議，評級機構做何反應，也構成了一個更大的問題。

　　Under the proposed deal, the debt ceiling will be raised to $17.7 trillion from $14.3 trillion and in return the government will make plans to cut spending by $1 trillion over the next decade and charge a special committee with finding a further $1.5 trillion savings over the same period. But this won't be enough for some agencies, which deem cuts of $4 trillion necessary for the U.S. to maintain its AAA rating.

　　根據擬議方案，債務上限將從14.3萬億美元提高到17.7萬億美元，作為條件，政府將制定未來10年削減支出1萬億美元的方案，并委托一個特別委員會尋找同一時期進一步省下1.5萬億美元的辦法。但這對于一些評級機構來講仍然不夠，它們認為，美國要維持AAA評級，則必須削減支出4萬億美元。

　　Nigel Sillis, Director of Research, Fixed Income & Currency at Baring Asset Management, said the question has become not if the U.S. will be downgraded, but when. All this spells good news for gold.

　　資產管理公司霸菱資產管理有限公司（Baring Asset Management）固定收益與外匯部研究總監(jiān)西利斯(Nigel Sillis)說，問題已經不是美國會不會被下調評級，而是何時被下調。對于黃金來說，這一切都是利好消息。

　　'The possibility of additional quantitative easing in the U.S. and the likelihood that real interest rates will remain negative for some time--at least until 2013--reinforce the attractiveness of gold to investors,' said Caroline Bain, economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit.

　　《經濟學人》信息部(Economist Intelligence Unit)經濟學家貝恩(Caroline Bain)說，美國采取新一輪量化寬松措施的可能性，以及一段時間內（至少在2013年之前）實際利率繼續(xù)為負的可能性，強化了黃金對于投資者的吸引力。

　　The debt saga is undoubtedly set to see a few more twists and turns to come. But it's critical that the markets don't lose sight of why the situation in the U.S. occurred in the first place.

　　圍繞債務問題展開的曲折爭論，接下來無疑還會出現(xiàn)一些新的轉折。但關鍵是市場并沒有忘記美國當前局勢一開頭為什么會出現(xiàn)。

　　'The global financial crisis has simply been transferred from banks to governments, and even the U.S. cannot escape the need for many years of fiscal austerity,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.

　　研究公司Capital Economics首席國際經濟學家杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)說，很簡單，全球金融危機已經從銀行轉移到政府，即使美國也逃不掉多年緊縮財政的必要性。

　　With U.S. gross domestic product growth on track to disappoint, as last week's second quarter data showed, equities will struggle to gain ground and Treasury yields will stay low--all of which cushion gold's downside at the very least, and provides plenty of reasons for its ascent at best.

　　在美國國內生產總值很可能低于預期（正如上周發(fā)布的二季度數據所顯示）的情況下，股市將很難走強，美國國債收益率也會保持在低水平。這一切至少會給黃金價格的下跌形成緩沖，往好的方面說，還有可能為其上漲提供許許多多的理由。