China is at a critical decision-making juncture, with inflation likely having hit new highs in the past month, even as other indicators are pointing to a slowdown in growth. A debate is now raging over whether the central bank should ease up on its tight monetary policy.

　　ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images 中國(guó)正處于一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的決策時(shí)刻，通貨膨脹可能已在過(guò)去一個(gè)月觸及新高，而其他指標(biāo)則表明增長(zhǎng)在放緩。有關(guān)央行是否應(yīng)放松緊縮貨幣政策的問(wèn)題正在引發(fā)一場(chǎng)激烈的爭(zhēng)論。Critics of the People's Bank of China from other ministries and various state think tanks have begun to argue that it has tightened policy too far in its zeal to contain inflation. In particular, they charge that the central bank's series of hikes to the level of required reserves for banks is choking off access to credit for smaller borrowers.

　　中國(guó)人民銀行遭到許多來(lái)自其他政府部門和各類國(guó)家智庫(kù)的人士的批評(píng)，這些批評(píng)人士已經(jīng)開(kāi)始宣稱，央行為遏制通脹收緊政策做的太過(guò)火了。特別是，他們指責(zé)央行一系列上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率的舉動(dòng)阻斷了較小借貸者獲得信貸的通道。

　　Government economist Ba Shusong, for instance, wrote in a commentary piece  on Tuesday in the Economic Information Daily that the central bank should raise rates again--it has done so four times since October--to address inflation fears, but at the same time lower the reserve requirement ratio to create a better credit environment for small-and-medium enterprises, or SMEs. Mr. Ba is deputy director-general of the Financial Research Department of the State Council's Development Research Center, essentially an economic adviser to China's top policy makers in the State Council.

　　AndrewHarrer/Bloomberg2011年5月9日，周一，中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)周小川出席在美國(guó)華盛頓舉行的中美戰(zhàn)略與經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話的開(kāi)幕儀式。例如，政府經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家巴曙松周二在《經(jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào)》發(fā)表的一篇文章中寫道，央行應(yīng)在適當(dāng)加息以抑制通脹預(yù)期的同時(shí)，適當(dāng)降低準(zhǔn)備金率以改善中小企業(yè)的信貸環(huán)境。央行從去年10月以來(lái)已經(jīng)四次加息。巴曙松是國(guó)務(wù)院發(fā)展研究中心金融研究所副所長(zhǎng)，本質(zhì)上就是國(guó)務(wù)院最高決策者的經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)。

　　Another paper, the China Business News, reported on Monday that some government officials are pushing for a revision of the country's monetary policy stance, to a term that could be translated as “relatively tight, with directed loosening.”

　　《第一財(cái)經(jīng)日?qǐng)?bào)》周一報(bào)道說(shuō)，部分政府官員正在推動(dòng)中國(guó)的貨幣政策立場(chǎng)向“相對(duì)緊縮、定向?qū)捤?rdquo;轉(zhuǎn)變。

　　This new stance would recognize that relatively tight policy is still needed to keep liquidity in check, while allowing some loosening to give small and medium-sized companies better access to credit, to give local-government financing platforms continued funding, and to boost the auto industry, the newspaper said.

　　該報(bào)說(shuō)，這種新思路將會(huì)認(rèn)可，仍然需要相對(duì)緊縮的政策來(lái)控制資產(chǎn)流動(dòng)性，同時(shí)允許一定程度的寬松為中小企業(yè)提供更好的獲得信貸的通道，為地方政府融資平臺(tái)提供持續(xù)的資金支持，并且推動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。

　　Allies of the central bank, meanwhile, are hitting back against its critics. Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the central bank, told reporters last week that the monetary policy stance “should not and will not” be altered. He said that other measures could be taken to address the concerns of smaller companies, such as special tax breaks and the full legalization of some gray-market lenders that provide finance to them currently.

　　與此同時(shí)，央行的支持者則在向批評(píng)者還擊。央行學(xué)術(shù)顧問(wèn)李稻葵上周對(duì)記者說(shuō)，貨幣政策立場(chǎng)“不應(yīng)、也不會(huì)改變”。他說(shuō)可以采取其他措施解決小企業(yè)的問(wèn)題，比如針對(duì)小企業(yè)的特別稅收減免、將目前服務(wù)于小企業(yè)的非正規(guī)私人融資公司合法化等。

　　Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting weighed in on Tuesday, essentially agreeing with Mr. Li. "Fortunately, policymakers know that the issue of SME financing should be addressed by changing institutions such as opening up the banking sector instead of loosening monetary policies," he wrote in a note. Mr. Lu expects some loosening of the country's fiscal policy stance, such as additional spending on social housing projects, that could bolster growth.

　　美國(guó)銀行/美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家陸挺周二也發(fā)表了自己的看法，實(shí)際上與李稻葵的觀點(diǎn)相同。他在一份報(bào)導(dǎo)中寫道，幸運(yùn)的是，決策人士知道，中小企業(yè)融資問(wèn)題應(yīng)該通過(guò)改革機(jī)構(gòu)而不是放寬貨幣政策加以解決，比如開(kāi)放銀行業(yè)。陸挺預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)財(cái)政政策立場(chǎng)將有一定程度的放寬，比如在保障房項(xiàng)目上的更多支出，財(cái)政政策的放寬有望支撐增長(zhǎng)。

　　As the debate plays out, confusion reigns in the markets as to the future direction of policy. On Tuesday, a commentary piece in a newspaper backed by the central bank suggested it might slow the pace of tightening. The PBOC may "appropriately slow the pace of policy adjustments and lower the intensity of policy," a reporter for the Financial News wrote in the piece. Despite appearing in a paper backed by the central bank, the commentary piece doesn't necessarily represent its official views.

　　隨著論戰(zhàn)逐漸展開(kāi)，圍繞政策未來(lái)走向的困惑開(kāi)始在市場(chǎng)上盛行。周二，中國(guó)央行支持的一家報(bào)紙發(fā)表社論，暗示央行可能會(huì)放緩緊縮步伐?！督鹑跁r(shí)報(bào)》的記者在一篇文章中說(shuō)，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)央行將適度放緩政策調(diào)節(jié)節(jié)奏、降低政策力度。盡管這篇社論發(fā)表在央行支持的報(bào)紙上，卻不一定代表央行的官方觀點(diǎn)。

　　Indeed, other papers had a radically different read on the PBOC's intentions. Citing a PBOC statement on Monday that warned for the umpteenth time about inflation pressures, the Economic Information Daily, which is backed by the state-run Xinhua news service, said an interest rate hike could come this weekend [zh]. The state-run China Securities Journal was more cautious, saying a rate hike is likely this month.

　　實(shí)際上，其他報(bào)紙對(duì)央行的意圖有著迥然不同的看法?！督?jīng)濟(jì)參考報(bào)》援引央行周一一再次就通脹壓力提出警告的聲明說(shuō)，本周末可能加息。該報(bào)隸屬于新華社?！吨袊?guó)證券報(bào)》則更為謹(jǐn)慎，說(shuō)本月可能會(huì)加息。

　　Dow Jones Newswires latest poll, last month, found that eight of 10 China economists expect at least one more interest rate increase this year, with most of them predicting it would come late last month or this month.

　　上個(gè)月道瓊斯通訊社對(duì)10位中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的最新調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，有八位預(yù)測(cè)今年至少會(huì)再加息一次，其中大部分預(yù)測(cè)加息將發(fā)生在上個(gè)月底或本月。

　　The central bank, notoriously unpredictable and prone to making big announcements on holidays and weekends, could step in any time with a decisive move. Barring that, some clarity may come in mid-July. A raft of economic data, including June inflation and second-quarter gross domestic product growth, are due to be released on July 15. Around the same time, the State Council, or cabinet, is expected to announce the results of a meeting on the official economic policy stance in the second half of the year. Until then, expect further debate and confusion.

　　中國(guó)央行是出了名的難以預(yù)測(cè)，常常在節(jié)假日或周末宣布重大舉措。央行可能會(huì)隨時(shí)采取決定性的措施。除此之外，7月中旬形勢(shì)可能會(huì)有一定程度的明了。7月15日將公布一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，其中包括6月份通貨膨脹率和二季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)增速。大約與此同時(shí)，預(yù)計(jì)國(guó)務(wù)院將公布有關(guān)下半年官方經(jīng)濟(jì)政策立場(chǎng)的會(huì)議結(jié)果。在此之前，預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有更多的爭(zhēng)論和困惑。