At first glance, Germany’s decision not to insist on compulsory participation by private lenders in the latest bail-out of Greece may seem like a defeat for Chancellor Angela Merkel and Europe’s largest economy. But appearances can be deceiving. On another, more important level, Germany came out of the latest round of brinkmanship exactly where it may well have wanted to be – with the common currency intact and Germany able to motor forward.

　　乍看上去，德國不堅持要求私人貸方必須參與最新希臘紓困行動的決定，對于該國總理安格拉?默克爾(Angela Merkel)和這個歐洲最大的經(jīng)濟體而言，似乎是一場挫敗。但這種表象可能帶有欺騙性。從另一個更為重要的層面來說，德國走出了最新一輪的邊緣政策，且恰恰是在該國很可能希望的節(jié)點上——共同貨幣安然無恙，而德國經(jīng)濟能夠繼續(xù)迅猛前行。

　　These are heady days for Germany. With its torrid 6.1 percent first-quarter growth rate, it leads the field among industrialised nations. While Barack Obama has been exhorting the US to boost its exports, Germany – with just 82m inhabitants – has less vocally remained the world’s second-largest exporter. That has not only generated a huge current account surplus but has contributed two-thirds of Germany’s economic growth over the past decade.

　　這正是德國的大好光景。憑借第一季度高達6.1%的增長率，德國在工業(yè)化國家中獨領風騷。盡管巴拉克?奧巴馬(Barack Obama)一直在倡導美國提振出口，但人口僅為8200萬的德國，卻不事張揚地保持著全球第二大出口國的地位。在過去10年里，這不僅為德國帶來了巨額經(jīng)常賬戶盈余，還為德國經(jīng)濟貢獻了三分之二的增長。

　　For the first time since 1992, fewer than 3m Germans are unemployed, and inflation – the perennial obsession of the descendants of the Weimar Republic – remains muted. Business people buzz with self-confidence and even a subtler version of the arrogance evident before the integration of East Germany drained $2,000bn from the West and gave rise to the phrase “the sick man of Europe”.

　　1992年以來，德國失業(yè)人數(shù)首次降到了300萬人以下，而長期困擾自魏瑪共和國(Weimar Republic)以降歷屆德國政府的通脹問題，也得到了很好的控制。商界人士信心滿滿，甚至表現(xiàn)出一種不易覺察的傲慢——在兩德統(tǒng)一前，這種傲慢十分明顯。統(tǒng)一耗費了西部地區(qū)2萬億美元的資金，并創(chuàng)造出了“歐洲病人”這種說法。

　　In her approach to the problems of the eurozone’s periphery, Ms Merkel has cleverly triangulated between the antagonism of the populace to bail-outs and the importance to business of doing (almost) whatever it takes to preserve the euro. That the views of the two constituencies diverge should not be a surprise.

　　在解決歐元區(qū)外圍國家問題的策略中，默克爾精明地在德國普通民眾對（為他國）紓困的抵觸情緒與竭盡所能保住歐元對于商界的重要意義之間，找到了一個平衡點。這兩個選民群體的觀點有異也不足為奇。

　　For German workers, the current prosperity has come at a price. Beginning in 2003, then-chancellor Gerhard Schr?der pushed through a massive “Agenda 2010” reform programme that successfully peeled back the German welfare state (among other things, unemployment benefits were pared to encourage work), relaxed stultifying regulatory practices and created a “grand bargain” with workers.

　　對德國工人而言，當前的經(jīng)濟繁榮來之不易。從2003年開始，時任總理格哈德?施羅德(Gerhard Schr?der)大力推行一項宏大的“2010議程(Agenda 2010)”改革方案，成功地取消了德國福利國家制度（此外，為鼓勵就業(yè)，還降低了失業(yè)救濟金水平），放松了死板的監(jiān)管實踐，并與工人們達成了一項“全面協(xié)議”。

　　That complex labour agreement traded lower wage demands for greater job security, achieved in part through “short work”, under which lay-offs were avoided by workers reducing their hours. Government subsidies made up part – but not all – of the lost wages. But even for those not on short work, wages were sacrificed on the altar of competitiveness. All told, real incomes dropped by 4.5 percent in the past decade, reports the International Labor Organisation. So Germany has been selling more and keeping its citizens employed without the rising standard of living that capitalism provides.

　　這份復雜的勞工協(xié)議，以更低的薪酬要求換來了更大的工作保障，在某種程度上這是通過“短時工作”來實現(xiàn)的——即通過減少工作時長，來避免裁員情況。工資減少額的一部分（并非全部）由政府補貼加以彌補。但即使那些并非短時工作的員工，也出于保持競爭力的需要而在工資上做出了犧牲?？偠灾?，據(jù)國際勞工組織(ILO)報道，過去10年里工人的實際收入降低了4.5%。因此，德國能夠在生活水平?jīng)]有不斷提高（資本主義應做到這一點）的情況下，創(chuàng)造更大的出口，并維持國民的就業(yè)水平。

　　In that context, the opposition of rank-and-file Germans to the bail-outs should not be surprising. Opinion polls regularly show Germans more strongly against helping Greece than the French or Italians. To accommodate that sentiment, Ms Merkel has stood fast on a second, less controversial bail-out requirement: that Greece intensify its efforts at austerity. Meanwhile, in private conversation, most German businessmen argue for a pragmatic emphasis on safeguarding the euro. Some even back transfer payments to ease crushing Greek debt loads. That shouldn’t be surprising either, given the joyride that German exporters have received from the currency, whose value is held down by the poor performance of weaker members. A dissolution of the eurozone would leave German exporters confronted with a far more expensive currency and a less competitive position.

　　在這種背景下，德國普通民眾反對紓困便不足為奇。定期民調(diào)顯示，與法國人或意大利人相比，德國人對于救助希臘的反對更為強烈。為平息民眾的抵觸情緒，默克爾在第二種爭議更小的紓困條件上毫不讓步：希臘應加大緊縮力度。同時，在私下談話中，大多數(shù)德國商界人士都贊成務實地強調(diào)保衛(wèi)歐元的重要性。有些人甚至支持以轉(zhuǎn)移支付來減輕希臘沉重的債務負擔。這一點也不奇怪，因為弱小成員國的糟糕表現(xiàn)拖低了歐元匯率，令德國出口商從中受益。歐元區(qū)的解體，將使德國出口商面對高昂得多的匯率水平，并影響到他們的競爭地位。

　　With the euro intact and its members lashed at the hip to Germany, the prospects for Germany’s economy glisten. Over the past decade, German competitiveness (as measured by unit labour costs) has improved by 20 percent while that of weaker European countries has remained flat. That allows German companies not only to out-compete other eurozone countries in world markets; it also provides German exporters with an advantage when selling into other European markets, where 60 percent of German exports go.

　　在歐元完好無損，而歐元區(qū)國家在德國面前受到懲罰之際，德國的經(jīng)濟前景看好。過去10年間，德國的競爭力（按單位勞動力成本衡量）提升了20%，而歐洲弱國的競爭力則原地沒動。這不僅使德國公司在全球市場的競爭中擊敗了其它歐元區(qū)國家，而且使德國出口商在向歐洲其它市場出口時占據(jù)了優(yōu)勢——這些市場占到了德國總出口的60%。

　　Like other developed nations, Germany faces tough competition from China and its smaller brethren. But apart from its sensible economic policies, the country benefits from the formidable positioning of its manufacturing sector. It benefits as well from a more intangible factor: underlying discipline and drive for success. With that behind her, Ms Merkel’s influence over eurozone policies will continue to be greater than headline writers sometimes like to acknowledge.

　　與其他發(fā)達國家一樣，德國也面臨著來自中國及其“小兄弟”們的激烈競爭。但除了明智的經(jīng)濟政策，德國還得益于本國制造業(yè)的強大定位。同時，德國也得益于一個更無形的因素：根本的紀律和追求成功的動力。憑借這些因素的支持，默克爾在歐元區(qū)政策方面的影響力，仍將比媒體作者們有時愿意承認的更大。