Carworkers in southern Guangdong province warned the world last year it could not take cheap Chinese labour for granted any more by successfully agitating for higher wages in a series of industrial actions. Shanghai truckers reinforced that message with a strike of their own last week.

　　中國(guó)廣東省的汽車制造工人去年通過(guò)一系列罷工行動(dòng)，成功實(shí)現(xiàn)了加薪，由此向全世界發(fā)出警告，不能再認(rèn)為中國(guó)勞動(dòng)力廉價(jià)是理所當(dāng)然的。上海的貨車司機(jī)們上周通過(guò)罷工行動(dòng)，再次強(qiáng)化了這一信號(hào)。

　　The Chinese government is always wary of workers who possess the wherewithal to organise independent industrial action outside the auspices of the country’s only sanctioned union, the All China Federation of Trade Unions. But Shanghai’s truckers undoubtedly frighten Beijing more.

　　中華全國(guó)總工會(huì)(All China Federation of Trade Unions)是中國(guó)唯一一家得到政府認(rèn)可的工會(huì)組織，對(duì)于有能力在全國(guó)總工會(huì)之外發(fā)起獨(dú)立罷工行動(dòng)的工人，中國(guó)政府一直較為警惕。但上海的貨車司機(jī)無(wú)疑讓政府更為緊張。

　　The adage in western democracies that “all politics is local” has a parallel in authoritarian China, where almost all social unrest is local too. Dozens if not hundreds of small-scale protests, typically labour or land-related, flare every day.

　　西方民主國(guó)家的格言——“所有的政治都是地方的”——也適用于威權(quán)體制的中國(guó)。在中國(guó)，幾乎所有的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩也都是地方上的，每天都會(huì)發(fā)生數(shù)十起乃至數(shù)百起小規(guī)模示威，通常都與勞工或土地問(wèn)題有關(guān)。

　　For all the attention they commanded, the Guangdong strikes were in keeping with this pattern. Each concerned pay and conditions on the factory floor and they were resolved on the factory floor. The ire was directed at management, most notably at factories run by Honda and other Japanese carmakers.

　　引起廣泛關(guān)注的廣東工人的罷工就屬于這種模式：每起罷工涉及的都是工資和工作條件，也都在工廠內(nèi)部得到了解決。工人的憤怒指向了管理層，特別是在本田(Honda)等日本汽車制造商經(jīng)營(yíng)的工廠里。

　　Shanghai’s truckers latched on to something larger that, from the Chinese government’s perspective, made their strike potentially more dangerous. They were more explicit about their impatience with inflation in the form of the rising port fees and fuel costs that are eroding their ability to make a living. As one trucker told the FT: “This truck is all I have to support my wife and kid.”

　　上海貨車司機(jī)們的訴求更大，這使得他們的罷工在中國(guó)政府眼中可能也更危險(xiǎn)。司機(jī)們明確表現(xiàn)出對(duì)通脹正在失去耐心，港口費(fèi)用和燃料成本的不斷上漲侵蝕了他們的謀生能力。一位卡車司機(jī)對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》說(shuō)：“我全靠這輛卡車養(yǎng)活老婆孩子。”

　　Port fees can be blamed on port operators, even if they are state-owned, and at the weekend the Shanghai Transport and Port Authority announced a reduction or cancellation of various charges. In doing so the authority did not mention the strikes, saying only that the fee cuts were aimed at “easing rising inflation and cost pressures on transport companies”. It also lowered the monthly fee taxi drivers must pay for their vehicle, in a canny effort to prevent the port protests on the city’s outskirts from spreading into Shanghai proper.

　　政府可以將港口費(fèi)用上漲歸咎于港口運(yùn)營(yíng)商，即便他們是國(guó)有企業(yè)。周末，上海市交通港口局(Shanghai Transport and Port Authority)宣布降低或取消多個(gè)收費(fèi)項(xiàng)目。官方在宣布減免收費(fèi)時(shí)并沒(méi)有提到罷工，只是說(shuō)降低費(fèi)用旨在“緩解物價(jià)和費(fèi)用上漲對(duì)運(yùn)輸企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)的壓力”。有關(guān)政府部門(mén)還降低了出租車司機(jī)每月繳納的份子錢(qián)。此舉頗為聰明，是為了防止發(fā)生在港口的示威活動(dòng)從市郊蔓延到整個(gè)上海。

　　If only Beijing could fix inflation as readily as it fixes fees. Interest rate increases and other measures aimed at reining in price rises have thus far failed to have their intended effect, with inflation hitting a 32-month high of 5.4 per cent last month. As Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, put it recently, the government is discovering that inflation is a tiger that “once set free is very difficult to put back in its cage”.

　　中國(guó)政府若是能像解決收費(fèi)問(wèn)題那樣輕易解決通脹問(wèn)題就好了。旨在遏制物價(jià)上漲的加息及其他措施，迄今都未達(dá)到預(yù)期效果，上個(gè)月通脹率達(dá)到5.4%的32個(gè)月高點(diǎn)。正如中國(guó)總理溫家寶最近所說(shuō)，政府發(fā)現(xiàn)，通脹就像老虎，“如果放出來(lái)就很難再關(guān)進(jìn)去”。

　　The government will have gotten off lightly should this weekend’s fee reductions prove enough to send Shanghai’s truckers home, especially if they disperse before drivers in other cities cotton on to their example. As with last year’s Honda strikes, censors have imposed a strict media blackout to prevent exactly that.

　　如果周末減免費(fèi)用的舉措足以讓上海的貨車司機(jī)們重返崗位，尤其是能讓他們?cè)谄渌鞘械乃緳C(jī)們開(kāi)始效仿之前就自行解散，那么政府就躲過(guò)了麻煩。與去年本田在華企業(yè)發(fā)生罷工時(shí)一樣，審查機(jī)關(guān)嚴(yán)格封鎖了媒體報(bào)道，就是為了避免罷工蔓延。

　　While the authorities can do little to prevent vertical explosions of local discontent – think of thousands of little volcanoes erupting all over the country – they are ruthless when it comes to eradicating any horizontal linkages that might give rise to larger co-ordinated movements. Hence the brutality they unleashed on the highly networked Falungong cult a decade ago, and more recently their over-reaction to the anonymous internet pleas for “jasmine” protests inspired by this year’s Arab spring.

　　盡管政府部門(mén)幾乎無(wú)法阻止本地不滿情緒的縱向爆發(fā)——可以想像數(shù)以千計(jì)的小火山正在全國(guó)各處噴發(fā)，但他們不遺余力地消除橫向聯(lián)系，以免出現(xiàn)更大規(guī)模的協(xié)同運(yùn)動(dòng)。十年前，政府強(qiáng)硬打壓了組織嚴(yán)密的法輪功邪教。最近，面對(duì)“阿拉伯之春”啟發(fā)下中國(guó)網(wǎng)絡(luò)上匿名發(fā)起的“茉莉花”示威號(hào)召，政府也有些反應(yīng)過(guò)度。

　　As for the truckers’ concern about the rising price of diesel, increasing China’s already generous fuel subsidy would be too costly and humiliating a concession for such a localised disturbance. Beijing sets fuel prices and has raised them twice already this year.

　　對(duì)于貨車司機(jī)對(duì)柴油價(jià)格不斷上漲的擔(dān)憂，中國(guó)政府若提高本已相當(dāng)慷慨的燃料補(bǔ)貼，成本未免太過(guò)高昂，而且對(duì)于這樣一場(chǎng)地方性的騷亂作出讓步，也會(huì)令政府難堪。中國(guó)的燃料價(jià)格由政府制定，而中國(guó)政府今年已兩次上調(diào)油價(jià)。

　　Yet Chinese truckers still pay just $1.05 per litre of diesel fuel – 35.1 percent below the international market price – and the government fears the financial consequences of this year’s oil price surge. Minggao Shen, a China equity analyst at Citibank, has estimated that $150 a barrel oil would cost the government $66bn annually in subsidies.

　　不過(guò)，中國(guó)的貨車司機(jī)每升柴油仍只需支付1.05美元的價(jià)格，比國(guó)際市場(chǎng)低35.1%，政府也在擔(dān)心今年油價(jià)飆升可能帶來(lái)的財(cái)政后果?；ㄆ煦y行(Citibank)中國(guó)股市分析師沈明高估計(jì)，國(guó)際油價(jià)達(dá)到每桶150美元時(shí)，中國(guó)政府每年的補(bǔ)貼成本將達(dá)到660億美元。

　　But even if Shanghai’s truckers fade away quietly this time, they have already proved that one of the government’s worst fears was not misplaced – inflation can and will continue to inspire protests and social unrest. Another long, hot summer is just beginning on the Chinese mainland.

　　即使這一次上海貨車司機(jī)們悄然淡出人們的視野，但他們至少已經(jīng)證明，政府最大的擔(dān)憂并非多慮：通脹可能（也將會(huì)）繼續(xù)引發(fā)抗議和社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩。中國(guó)內(nèi)地又一個(gè)漫長(zhǎng)炎熱的夏季才剛剛開(kāi)始。