With allied forces bombing Libya, Saudi troops quelling unrest in Bahrain and intensifying violence in Yemen, the Middle East is becoming an increasingly unpredictable, dangerous place.

　　多國(guó)部隊(duì)轟炸利比亞，沙特阿拉伯派出部隊(duì)平息巴林內(nèi)亂，也門動(dòng)亂不斷升級(jí)，中東地區(qū)正成為一個(gè)越來越不可預(yù)測(cè)和危險(xiǎn)的地方。

　　Already, governments in Tunisia and Egypt have fallen. Protests have also spread to Syria and Oman and the Saudi government is trying to prevent protests from gaining traction in the Kingdom.

　　突尼斯和埃及的政府已經(jīng)下臺(tái)?？棺h活動(dòng)還蔓延到敘利亞和阿曼，而沙特政府正試圖阻止國(guó)內(nèi)的抗議活動(dòng)不斷升級(jí)。

　　The so-called Arab Spring has surprised many. Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill called events in the Middle East 'not overly kind' to the global growth story, though he remains bullish.

　　這場(chǎng)被稱作“阿拉伯之春”的動(dòng)蕩震驚了許多人。高盛資產(chǎn)管理部主席奧尼爾（Jim O'Neill）稱中東的一系列事件對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)來說并不算是“十分友好”，但他仍然看好后市。

　　So how should investors think about the region? Here are five strategies to consider.

　　投資者又該如何看待這一地區(qū)的局勢(shì)？下面提供五條策略以供參考：

　　Bet on oil

　　押注石油

　　This is what a lot of pros have already been doing -- pushing light, sweet crude to more than $100 a barrel from $85 a barrel in mid-February. Goldman estimates that there's a $10-a-barrel 'risk premium' already in crude prices.

　　 這是很多專業(yè)人士已經(jīng)在做的事情，他們將輕質(zhì)低硫原油的價(jià)格從2月中旬的每桶85美元推高至超過100美元。高盛估計(jì)現(xiàn)在每桶的原油價(jià)格中已經(jīng)包含了10美元的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。

　　After a few days of bombing in Libya, it's not clear the crisis there will resolve itself quickly, which could support further oil price gains. Also, events in Bahrain have quieted down, but the situation there is still unresolved. The island nation has become a flashpoint between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the two countries jostle for influence in the region. Bahrain has recalled its ambassador from Iran, and Iran has returned the disfavor. With the first- and third-biggest oil producers at loggerheads, the risk for oil markets remains high.

　　在利比亞空襲過后幾天，現(xiàn)在還不清楚那里的危機(jī)是否會(huì)很快得到解決，這種不確定的局面會(huì)支撐油價(jià)的進(jìn)一步上漲。此外，盡管巴林的內(nèi)亂逐漸平息，但那里的局勢(shì)仍然懸而未決。由于沙特和伊朗在這一地區(qū)爭(zhēng)奪影響力，巴林已經(jīng)成為沙特和伊朗之間的一個(gè)爆發(fā)點(diǎn)。巴林已經(jīng)從伊朗召回其大使，伊朗也立刻還以顏色。在全球第一和第三大產(chǎn)油國(guó)相互對(duì)峙之際，石油市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)仍然很高。

　　"Event risk is building in the oil market," Deutsche Bank says in a recent report, citing the Bahrain and Libyan situation. "This is occurring at a time when spare capacity in Saudi Arabia is falling rapidly." Deutsche also cites the Bank of Japan's huge liquidity injections following the Japanese earthquake and says it "views events as bullish" for crude oil.

　　德意志銀行在最近的一份研究報(bào)告援引巴林和利比亞的局勢(shì)時(shí)說，石油市場(chǎng)的突發(fā)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在積聚。眼下，沙特的閑置產(chǎn)能正在快速下降。德意志銀行同時(shí)援引了地震后日本央行往市場(chǎng)注入巨額流動(dòng)性的例子，并說這一系列事件對(duì)原油市場(chǎng)來說是一個(gè)利好。

　　Snap up gold

　　搶購黃金

　　Gold has had a topsy-turvy year so far, but the events in the Middle East and North Africa have given goldbugs a new reason to buy. The Libyan conflict in particular, has helped boost gold back toward record levels.

　　截至目前，金價(jià)走勢(shì)非?；靵y，但中東和北非的一系列事件給力挺黃金的人一個(gè)新的理由買入黃金。尤其是利比亞的沖突幫助金價(jià)回到歷史高位。

　　Gold investors tend to like conflict, uncertainty and chaos. In the past couple of weeks, they've gotten plenty of it. Along with the Middle East and North Africa, the Japanese disaster has also given gold a fillip.

　　黃金投資者往往喜歡沖突、不確定性和混亂。在過去幾周內(nèi)有太多這樣的事件。除了中東和北非的動(dòng)蕩局勢(shì)，日本的災(zāi)害也提振了金價(jià)。

　　"Optimism over the state of the global economic recovery at the start of the year, which drove U.S. real interest rates sharply higher and gold prices lower has been tempered by the ongoing events in the Middle East and North Africa and Japan, sending the 10-year US TIPS yield [lower], setting the stage for the next gold price rally," Goldman said in a recent report.

　　高盛在最近的一份報(bào)告中說，年初對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇形勢(shì)的一片樂觀大幅推高了美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率，并令金價(jià)走低。但這一情況已被中東、北非和日本正在發(fā)生的一系列事件所調(diào)和。美國(guó)十年期通脹保值債券（Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities，TIPS）走低，下一輪金價(jià)回升已蓄勢(shì)待發(fā)。

　　Goldman has a near-term target of $1480/oz for gold. Silver, which has outperformed gold in the last year, is also a possible hedge against uncertain events in the Middle East and elsewhere.

　　高盛預(yù)計(jì)，金價(jià)短期內(nèi)將摸高至1,480美元/盎司。而去年表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于黃金的白銀也是對(duì)沖中東和其它地區(qū)不確定事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有力工具。

　　Invest in defense stocks

　　 投資國(guó)防股

　　As the Journal's Bret Stephens wrote in his column this morning: "We're (Almost) All Neocons Now." Despite expressing initial reluctance to get involved in the Libyan situation, the Obama Administration has opened a third war front for the U.S. military.

　　就像《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》的Bret Stephens在他的專欄中寫道的那樣：我們（幾乎）都成了新保守派。盡管一開始表示不愿參與到利比亞的亂局中來，但奧巴馬政府還是為美軍打開了第三條戰(zhàn)線。

　　Until recently, defense stocks, such as Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics had been flat-to-weaker during the Obama Administration, as investors counted on a continued pullback from Iraq and Afghanistan and an overall reduction in defense spending to help get the government's fiscal house in order.

　　在奧巴馬政府執(zhí)政期間，直到最近，像Raytheon、Northrop Grumman和General Dynamics這樣的國(guó)防股至多只能算是表現(xiàn)平平。投資者預(yù)計(jì)政府會(huì)繼續(xù)從伊拉克和阿富汗撤軍，同時(shí)會(huì)降低總體國(guó)防支出以縮小財(cái)政赤字。

　　But the prospect of more conflict has given these shares a bit of a boost in the past week. If it seems that the Obama Administration is going to pursue a more muscular foreign policy and that is still an uncertain bet defense stocks could surprise.

　　但過去一周里，未來發(fā)生更多沖突的可能稍稍提振了這些股票的價(jià)格。如果奧巴馬政府將繼續(xù)推行更為強(qiáng)硬的外交政策，那么國(guó)防股的表現(xiàn)可能令人驚艷，但外交政策的走向還是未知數(shù)。

　　Avoid the dollar

　　避開美元

　　As I noted recently, the dollar has performed oddly during the Middle East unrest. In the past, the dollar was the number-one safe haven in times of trouble. In the past two months, investors have preferred the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and gold.

　　正如我最近指出的，在中東動(dòng)蕩期間，美元的表現(xiàn)很奇怪。在過去，美元總是亂世中的頭號(hào)避險(xiǎn)工具。但在過去的兩個(gè)月中，投資者卻傾向于瑞士法郎、日?qǐng)A和黃金。

　　Lost in the firehose of news the past week nuclear crisis, bombing in Tripoli, Saudi troops in Bahrain -- is the increasing divergence between U.S. monetary policy and policy elsewhere, especially in the euro-zone.

　　由于過去的一周迷失在一系列新聞中，包括日本核危機(jī)、空襲利比亞、沙特出兵巴林，美國(guó)的貨幣政策和其它國(guó)家（尤其是歐元區(qū)）的貨幣政策的分歧越來越大。

　　The European Central Bank has made it clear it will raise rates at its next meeting. The Fed isn't even thinking about rate hikes yet. This divergence has propelled the euro sharply higher against the buck. The dollar has held up against the yen, but only after a highly unusual intervention by the G7 to tamp down extraordinary yen strength after the Japanese earthquake.

　　歐洲央行已明確表示將在下次會(huì)議上提高利率，而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)甚至還沒有考慮加息。政策的分歧大幅推高了歐元兌美元的匯率。雖然美元兌日?qǐng)A走強(qiáng)，但這是在日本地震之后七國(guó)集團(tuán)不同尋常的入場(chǎng)干預(yù)以打壓異常堅(jiān)挺的日?qǐng)A之后才出現(xiàn)的。

　　With the U.S. fiscal situation uncertain, the debate about the debt ceiling still unresolved and monetary policy remaining super easy, the dollar will stay weak.

　　由于美國(guó)的財(cái)政狀況并不明朗，有關(guān)債務(wù)限額的討論仍然懸而未決，而貨幣政策又非常寬松，美元將繼續(xù)疲軟。

　　Steer clear of Middle East/Africa funds

　　避開中東/非洲基金

　　Some analysts like to urge investors to invest at the point of crisis. That's been a popular approach to Japan in the past week, especially after its stock market cratered in the first few days after the earthquake. That trade has worked, for the most part, primarily because Japan is a huge economy filled with nimble, global businesses that will find ways to overcome the disaster. Even Warren Buffett says it's a good time to buy Japan.

　　一些分析師喜歡催促投資者在危機(jī)時(shí)進(jìn)行投資。對(duì)于日本市場(chǎng)來說，在過去一周這是常見的做法，尤其是地震后頭幾天日本股市大跌。多數(shù)時(shí)候這種做法非常有效，主要是因?yàn)槿毡臼且粋€(gè)大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，其國(guó)內(nèi)有很多反應(yīng)靈敏的全球企業(yè)，他們總會(huì)找到辦法克服災(zāi)害。即使是巴菲特也說現(xiàn)在是投資日本市場(chǎng)的好時(shí)機(jī)。

　　So, why not say the same for the Middle East and North Africa?

　　那么，為什么中東和北非的情況就不一樣呢？

　　For starters, it's not clear what the world will look like on the other side of this chaos. Tunisia and Egypt are still trying to sort themselves out after tossing out the previous leaders and the Egyptian stock market has been closed for almost eight weeks (it's expected to re-open on Wednesday).

　　首先，尚不清楚世界的另一個(gè)亂局會(huì)如何發(fā)展在前任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人下臺(tái)之后，突尼斯和埃及還在試圖厘清頭緒。埃及股市在關(guān)閉了近八周之后，于周三重新開市。

　　This region of emerging and frontier markets still has oceans of political risk and a history that does not argue for rapid recovery or the sudden flourishing of market capitalism. Indeed, governments that emerge from the crises could be even less market-friendly than what came before. Nobody really knows.

　　這一地區(qū)的新興和前沿市場(chǎng)存在巨大的政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并且有復(fù)蘇緩慢或不太推崇市場(chǎng)資本主義的歷史。事實(shí)上，在對(duì)待市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的態(tài)度上，危機(jī)后上臺(tái)的政府可能比上一屆政府更不友好。沒有人知道會(huì)怎么樣。

　　And when nobody really knows what will happen, that's not a recipe for investing, that's a recipe for playing the lottery. There are better ways to deploy your assets.

　　既然沒有人知道將要發(fā)生的實(shí)際情況，那么這里就不適宜投資，只適合買彩票撞大運(yùn)。畢竟，我們還有分配資產(chǎn)的更好的途徑。