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Mining companies, which posted record profits of more than $50 billion in 2010, are funneling cash into expanding their supplies of key raw materials. The expansion, though, is unlikely to be enough to meet robust demand and tame rising commodity prices.
為了增加關鍵原材料的供應,各大礦業(yè)公司紛紛注入資金。但增加的供應不太可能滿足強勁的需求,也無法抑制不斷上漲的大宗商品價格。2010年各大礦業(yè)公司報出了創(chuàng)紀錄的超過500億美元的利潤水平。
Companies such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto PLC and Vale SA are boosting capital investment but running into various head winds, which are slowing their ability to greatly boost output of iron ore, coal and copper. As a result, prices of those commodities are expected to remain high, with some forecast to climb even higher over the next two years. The price of coal has risen 32% since late last year.
必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto PLC)和淡水河谷(Vale SA)等公司正在增加資本投入,但各種不利因素也降低了這些公司大大提高鐵礦石、煤炭和銅的產出的能力。結果上述大宗商品的價格預計將停留在高位,一些人甚至預測未來兩年價格還將漲至更高。自去年底以來煤炭的價格累計上漲了32%。
One issue shaping -- and limiting -- investment options is the rising wave of nationalism by countries, which have signaled an intent to impose high taxes or government requirements on the businesses.
極大影響和限制投資選擇的是各國不斷興起的民族主義浪潮,具體表現(xiàn)為政府企圖對各大企業(yè)征收重稅或施加各種規(guī)定和要求。
Roger Agnelli, the CEO of Brazil's Vale, which generated $26.12 billion in cash from operations in 2010, is under pressure to step down by government officials who want the mining company to invest more heavily in Brazil. They would like to see more steel-making operations that could use iron ore and coal to make steel, rather than export those raw materials to steel plants in other parts of the world.
巴西淡水河谷的首席執(zhí)行長阿涅利(Roger Agnelli)目前正處于辭職壓力之下,因為政府官員希望該公司能加大在巴西的投資。淡水河谷2010年的營業(yè)現(xiàn)金收入共計261.2億美元。政府官員希望看到巴西國內能有更多的鋼鐵廠利用鐵礦石和煤炭煉鋼,而不是將這些原材料出口到世界其它地區(qū)的鋼鐵廠。
Rio Tinto Chief Executive Tom Albanese says that miners have cash available but that progress in developing or expanding new mines is slowed by delays in government permits, escalating costs for labor and machinery, and limited ports and railways. Companies have already developed the most accessible reserves and now have to dig deeper, which adds costs. They also have to extract more tons and refine them more because the reserves may not be as pure.
力拓首席執(zhí)行長艾博年(Tom Albanese)說,礦業(yè)公司手頭不缺現(xiàn)金,但開采或擴大新礦的進程被政府審批的延誤(這增加了勞動力和機械成本)以及有限的港口和鐵路運能所拖累。那些最容易開發(fā)的礦產資源已經(jīng)被各大公司開采了,剩下的礦需要深入挖掘才行,這也增加了成本。由于礦產資源可能不純,現(xiàn)在也必須開采更多的礦,進行更細致的提煉。
"Even when we do find the new resources and our engineers are ready to go, we find that it's actually taking longer than it would have 10 to 20 years ago to deliver them to the market," Mr. Albanese told investors in Hong Kong last week. "Five years ago it was hard to look at a project without spending at least $500 million. Today I would have to say it's hard to look at a project without spending at least $2-$3 billion."
艾博年上周在香港告訴投資者,即便我們找到了新的礦產資源,我們的工程師也準備好了,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)比起10至20年前,現(xiàn)在想要將礦產資源送到市場需要更多的時間。艾博年又說,五年前,如果沒有5億美元你很難去考慮一個項目。今天我要說沒有至少20億至30億美元,你很難考慮一個項目。
In recent weeks, Rio Tinto, which posted a record $14 billion in earnings in 2010 and had $23.5 billion in cash from operations, boosted its 2011 capital expenditure budget to $13 billion from the previous $11 billion estimated last winter. Guy Elliott, the chief financial officer of Rio Tinto, says the miner is going to focus on small to medium-sized acquisitions up to the 'single-digit' billion-dollar range.
最近幾周力拓將2011年的資本支出預算從去年冬天估計的110億美元提高到130億美元,其首席執(zhí)行長艾略特(Guy Elliott)說該公司打算將重點放在價值不超過10億美元的中小型收購上。力拓公布了2010年創(chuàng)紀錄的140億美元的利潤,營業(yè)現(xiàn)金收入為235億美元。
Supplies of certain minerals, copper in particular, are expected to be tight. Demand for copper, which is used in commercial construction and industrial piping, is outstripping supply by about 400,000 metric tons a year, according to analysts. Demand for iron ore, used to make steel, is expected to exceed supply for at least the next five years as steel mills in China increase their own production.
某些礦物的供應(尤其是銅)預計將緊張。據(jù)分析師估計,銅的需求缺口一年約為40萬噸。銅主要用于商業(yè)建筑和工業(yè)管道。預計至少未來五年用于煉鋼的鐵礦石都將出現(xiàn)需求缺口,因為中國的鋼鐵廠提高了產能。
'No matter how much will is out there to do these new projects, you are probably going to be in a position of under supply, with copper being the most extreme,' says Mike Elliott, who heads Ernst & Young's global mining and metals practice in Australia. Investment and development is constrained in part by the limited ports and rails, he says.
安永會計師事務所駐澳大利亞的全球礦業(yè)和金屬業(yè)務主管埃利奧特(Mike Elliott)說,不管你多么希望能做成這些新的項目,你很可能會碰到供給不足的情況,其中需求缺口最大的是銅。埃利奧特又說,投資和開采受到限制的部分原因是港口和鐵路運能有限。
Having spent the last two years significantly reducing debt loads, miners are expected to ramp up investment and exceed 2009's spending level of $113.7 billion for 1,123 deals, according to the latest report from Ernst & Young's mining research and consulting.
安永會計師事務所礦業(yè)研究和咨詢的最新報告顯示,在過去兩年大幅降低債務負擔之后,各大礦業(yè)公司預計將增加投資,并超過2009年1,137億美元的支出水平(共計1,123宗交易)。
Rio Tinto slashed debt to $4.3 billion in 2010, from $18.9 billion at the end of 2009. Xstrata PLC reduced its net debt by 38% to $7.64 billion from $12.3 billion.
力拓將債務水平從2009年底的189億美元削減至2010年的43億美元。而Xstrata PLC將凈債務水平從123億美元降低到了76.4億美元,降低了38%。
BHP has about $16 billion of cash on hand and an undrawn $4 billion revolving-credit facility, according to its latest financial results. The miner says that it will spend about $80 billion in growth projects over the next five years to find and develop new resource projects in order to meet the world's demand for more metals and minerals.
必和必拓最新的財務業(yè)績顯示,該公司手頭約有160億美元的現(xiàn)金,另外還有40億美元的循環(huán)信用額度沒有使用。這家礦業(yè)公司說,為了滿足全球對金屬和礦物的更多需求,該公司計劃未來五年在成長性項目上花費大約800億美元,以尋找和開采新的礦產資源。
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