China’s average annual rate of economic growth over the next two decades will fall to little more than half the current level as its ability to sustain huge investment declines, according to the Asian Development Bank.

　　亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行(Asian Development Bank)稱(chēng)，隨著中國(guó)維持巨額投資的能力下滑，中國(guó)年均經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率在未來(lái)20年將下降至略高于目前水平的一半。

　　Such a slowdown would have a dramatic effect on China’s place in the world, significantly delaying the moment at which its economy surpasses that of the US as the world’s largest, having overtaken Japan as the second largest earlier this year.

　　這樣的減速會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)的國(guó)際地位產(chǎn)生重要影響，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量超越美國(guó)成為世界最大的時(shí)間將顯著延后。今年早些時(shí)候，中國(guó)已超越日本，成為全球第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。

　　Jim O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, forecast in 2009 that China could overtake the US by 2027. However, that prediction relied on China achieving growth of “close to 10 per cent for many years”.

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)研究部主管吉姆•奧尼爾(Jim O'Neill)2009年預(yù)測(cè)，中國(guó)可能在2027年趕超美國(guó)。但這項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè)的前提是中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)率“多年接近10%”。

　　In its first official attempt to quantify China’s long-term growth prospects, the ADB said on Tuesday that its baseline projection was just 5.5 per cent on average for the 20 years to 2030, compared with 9.4 per cent between 1981 and 2007 and a forecast 9.6 per cent this year. Growth could average 6.6 per cent if China implemented reforms to reduce its dependence on investment and increase productivity through improvements in education, property rights and research and development, the ADB said. Jong-Wha Lee, ADB chief economist, said many other countries in Asia would face the same growth problem because their rapid rates of economic growth in the past three decades had been underpinned by unsustainable levels of investment. “We don’t think these countries can go back to the previous levels of strong growth that they had before the global financial crisis,” he said. The ADB report forecasts that South Korea’s long-term economic growth will fall from an average of 6.3 per cent to a baseline projection of 3.9 per cent, Taiwan’s from 6.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent, Indonesia’s from 4.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent and India’s from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

　　這是亞行首次嘗試量化中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)前景。該機(jī)構(gòu)周二稱(chēng)，其基準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè)為，截至2030年的20年期間中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)年均增長(zhǎng)率僅為5.5%，相比之下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)1981年至2007年的年均增長(zhǎng)率為9.4%，今年預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到9.6%。亞行稱(chēng)，如果中國(guó)實(shí)施改革，降低對(duì)投資的依賴(lài)，并通過(guò)改善教育質(zhì)量、產(chǎn)權(quán)狀況和研發(fā)水平來(lái)提高生產(chǎn)率，那么年均增長(zhǎng)率可達(dá)6.6%。亞行首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家李鐘和(Jong-Wha Lee)指出，由于過(guò)去30年間迅猛的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是由不可持續(xù)的投資水平支撐的，其他許多亞洲國(guó)家也會(huì)面臨同樣的增長(zhǎng)問(wèn)題。他說(shuō)：“我們不認(rèn)為這些國(guó)家能恢復(fù)全球金融危機(jī)之前的高速增長(zhǎng)水平。”亞行報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)韓國(guó)長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將從平均6.3%下降到3.9%的基準(zhǔn)預(yù)測(cè)水平，臺(tái)灣將從6.1%降至3.1%、印尼將從4.8%降至4.4%，而印度將從5.5%降至4.5% 。